Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

65.9%Arkansas State

34.1%Old Dominion

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -4.1

PROJECTED TOTAL160.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -193

Old Dominion

12-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Projected Total160.8

Projected ScoreOld Dominion 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricOld Dominion

57.7MMH Power Index47.2

113.1Offensive Efficiency107.4

105.3Defensive Efficiency109.8

7.8Net Efficiency-2.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule-0.1

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency4.1

73.3Tempo70.9

52.7%Effective FG%50.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate15.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %26.1%

39.6%Free Throw Rate35.2%

5.8Average Margin-1.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY65.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–47.2), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.4), defensive efficiency (105.3–109.8), net efficiency (7.8–-2.4).

Old Dominion COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-0.1–-1.0), ball security (15.4–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

78—59

Old Dominion

Arkansas State by 19 • 67.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATOld Dominion

27-62FG17-64

44.0%FG%27.0%

8-183PT4-23

44.0%3PT%17.0%

16-19FT21-32

84.0%FT%66.0%

46Rebounds43

13Offensive Rebounds18

11Assists9

8Turnovers7

1Steals2

6Blocks8

22Fouls18

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	30	9-10	3-3	0-0	2	5	0	0	21
Taryn Todd	Guard	31	5-17	2-6	5-6	7	5	1	0	17
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	21	5-7	1-2	0-1	4	0	0	1	11
Rashaud Marshall	F	27	2-5	0-0	5-6	6	0	0	2	9
Josh Hill	F	14	3-4	2-3	0-0	4	0	0	0	8
Izaiyah Nelson	F	21	2-9	0-1	2-2	9	0	0	0	6
Derrian Ford	G	17	1-8	0-2	4-4	3	0	0	0	6
Joseph Pinion	G	19	0-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	2	0
Avery Felts	Guard	14	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	1	0
Kameron Johnson	Forward	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Justin Johnson	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Cody Head	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Zane Butler	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Old Dominion

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sean Durugordon	Guard	31	5-13	1-3	10-11	8	3	0	1	21
Jaden Johnson	G	36	6-14	1-2	5-5	7	2	1	0	18
Robert Davis Jr.	G	37	1-12	1-10	3-3	2	0	1	0	6
Stephaun Walker	F	31	2-10	0-3	0-1	10	1	0	1	4
Dani Pounds	F	5	1-3	1-2	0-2	0	0	0	0	3
R.J. Blakney	Forward	27	0-4	0-3	2-8	4	1	0	2	2
Caelum Swanton-Rodger	F	17	1-4	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	4	2
Donovan Raymond	F	3	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Caden Diggs	F	8	0-3	0-0	1-2	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Nacey	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Vytautas Zygas	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Rieco Hellams	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.1Possessions67.1

116.2Offensive Efficiency87.9

87.9Defensive Efficiency116.2

28.3Net Efficiency-28.3

50.0%Effective FG%29.7%

54.9%True Shooting %37.2%

12.1%Turnover Rate10.3%

30.6%Free Throw Rate50.0%

29.0%3-Point Rate35.9%

1.38Assist / Turnover1.29

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 19 points. The game played at approximately 67.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.