Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

39.4%Illinois State

60.6%Murray State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMurray State -2.7

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEMurray State -154

Murray State

20-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 77

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreMurray State 79

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricMurray State

54.3MMH Power Index53.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency115.0

101.4Defensive Efficiency111.0

9.2Net Efficiency4.0

1.0Strength of Schedule3.5

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.5

67.5Tempo72.3

54.3%Effective FG%54.0%

16.8%Turnover Rate16.3%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %32.7%

32.0%Free Throw Rate39.1%

6.2Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–53.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–111.0), net efficiency (9.2–4.0), recent form (-4.4–-9.5).

Murray State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (115.0–110.6), strength of schedule (3.5–1.0), ball security (16.3–16.8).

Final

Illinois State

74—68

Murray State

Illinois State by 6 • 62.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATMurray State

26-49FG20-48

53.0%FG%42.0%

8-203PT8-23

40.0%3PT%35.0%

14-16FT20-26

88.0%FT%77.0%

27Rebounds28

6Offensive Rebounds10

10Assists7

13Turnovers11

2Steals7

3Blocks—

24Fouls17

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	32	5-9	2-4	5-5	1	1	0	0	17
Johnny Kinziger	G	30	6-11	2-7	3-4	0	4	1	0	17
Caden Boser	Forward	27	7-9	3-5	0-0	3	1	0	0	17
Ty Pence	G	24	3-5	0-1	1-1	8	1	0	0	7
Dalton Banks	Guard	26	2-6	0-0	2-2	5	2	0	0	6
Jordan Davis	Guard	25	1-4	1-3	1-2	3	0	0	2	4
Landon Wolf	G	15	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	1	2
Cade Norris	G	11	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Cameron Barnes	F	7	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Jack Daugherty	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
JaCobi Wood	Guard	33	7-14	3-7	4-5	2	4	0	21
Kylen Milton	Guard	30	4-6	1-2	9-10	8	1	1	18
AJ Ferguson	Guard	36	4-8	2-4	5-8	5	0	1	15
Terence Harcum	Guard	35	1-10	1-8	2-2	1	1	2	5
Alden Applewhite	F	22	2-3	1-2	0-0	4	0	2	5
Justin Morgan	Guard	23	1-4	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	2
Nick Ellington	F	11	1-1	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	2
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin	F	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0
Patrick Chew	Guard	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.5Possessions62.5

118.4Offensive Efficiency108.8

108.8Defensive Efficiency118.4

9.6Net Efficiency-9.6

61.2%Effective FG%50.0%

65.4%True Shooting %56.3%

20.4%Turnover Rate17.9%

32.7%Free Throw Rate54.2%

40.8%3-Point Rate47.9%

0.77Assist / Turnover0.64

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 62.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.