Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.0%Texas State

74.0%App State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADApp State -7.5

PROJECTED TOTAL141.3

MODEL MONEYLINEApp State -285

App State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 67

Projected Total141.3

Projected ScoreApp State 74

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricApp State

49.4MMH Power Index54.2

107.7Offensive Efficiency110.9

103.4Defensive Efficiency101.7

4.3Net Efficiency9.2

-4.7Strength of Schedule-4.2

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency7.0

68.6Tempo64.9

51.3%Effective FG%51.1%

18.4%Turnover Rate15.2%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %34.2%

36.0%Free Throw Rate39.8%

2.9Average Margin6.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

App State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMApp State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.2–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.9–107.7), defensive efficiency (101.7–103.4), net efficiency (9.2–4.3).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (9.1–7.0), shooting efficiency (51.3–51.1), offensive rebounding (34.3–34.2).

Final

Texas State

61—72

App State

App State by 11 • 63.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATApp State

23-61FG27-51

38.0%FG%53.0%

8-223PT12-22

36.0%3PT%55.0%

7-7FT6-9

100.0%FT%67.0%

29Rebounds35

8Offensive Rebounds5

11Assists15

8Turnovers12

7Steals5

1Blocks3

12Fouls10

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyrel Morgan	Forward	36	6-12	1-2	3-3	5	1	2	0	16
Dylan Dawson	Guard	21	5-11	4-6	0-0	2	2	1	0	14
Drue Drinnon	Guard	28	3-7	2-4	3-3	3	2	0	0	11
Tylan Pope	Forward	19	4-8	1-3	1-1	3	0	0	1	10
Joshua O'Garro	G	32	4-9	0-2	0-0	4	3	3	0	8
Coleton Benson	G	14	1-5	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Kaden Gumbs	G	32	0-8	0-2	0-0	3	3	1	0	0
Bessanty Saragba	F	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Nate Deer	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Austin Green	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

App State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Myles Tate	Guard	36	9-19	4-6	0-0	7	6	2	0	22
Alonzo Dodd	G	33	6-9	2-3	0-0	6	2	2	1	14
CJ Huntley	Forward	35	4-8	0-1	4-5	10	3	0	1	12
Dior Conners	G	28	3-5	3-5	0-0	1	2	0	0	9
Jackson Threadgill	Guard	26	3-4	3-4	0-0	4	1	1	0	9
Jalil Beaubrun	Forward	19	2-4	0-1	1-2	2	1	0	1	5
Michael Marcus Jr.	F	9	0-0	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	1
Jamil Muttilib	G	11	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Luke Wilson	C	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.3Possessions63.3

96.4Offensive Efficiency113.7

113.7Defensive Efficiency96.4

-17.4Net Efficiency17.4

44.3%Effective FG%64.7%

47.4%True Shooting %65.1%

12.4%Turnover Rate19.3%

11.5%Free Throw Rate17.6%

36.1%3-Point Rate43.1%

1.38Assist / Turnover1.25

Game Summary

App State won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 63.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.