Portland State

20-11

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

57.3%Portland State

42.7%Sacramento State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADPortland State -3.0

PROJECTED TOTAL156.0

MODEL MONEYLINEPortland State -134

Sacramento State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePortland State 80

Projected Total156.0

Projected ScoreSacramento State 76

Team Comparison

Portland StateMetricSacramento State

50.2MMH Power Index43

109.3Offensive Efficiency106.1

100.2Defensive Efficiency112.0

9.1Net Efficiency-5.9

-5.6Strength of Schedule0.9

0.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-7.8

70.1Tempo73.2

51.7%Effective FG%48.5%

16.6%Turnover Rate14.2%

31.6%Offensive Rebound %25.1%

36.8%Free Throw Rate41.8%

6.4Average Margin-4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Portland State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMPortland State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (50.2–43.0), offensive efficiency (109.3–106.1), defensive efficiency (100.2–112.0), net efficiency (9.1–-5.9).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.9–-5.6), ball security (14.2–16.6), free throw rate (41.8–36.8).

Final

Portland State

53—56

Sacramento State

Sacramento State by 3 • 60.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Portland StateTEAM STATSacramento State

21-51FG19-51

41.0%FG%37.0%

6-223PT5-24

27.0%3PT%21.0%

5-13FT13-22

38.0%FT%59.0%

39Rebounds35

9Offensive Rebounds10

12Assists13

12Turnovers9

6Steals6

3Blocks5

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Portland State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Johnson	Forward	34	5-9	2-4	1-2	1	0	0	1	13
Terri Miller Jr.	F	22	5-7	1-2	0-0	4	1	3	0	11
Cole Farrell	G	26	4-9	1-2	0-2	5	1	0	0	9
Qiant Myers	Guard	37	2-5	0-2	2-6	4	7	2	1	6
Tre-Vaughn Minott	C	20	2-2	0-0	2-3	5	1	0	0	6
Jaylin Henderson	G	26	2-11	1-8	0-0	4	1	1	0	5
Hayden Curtiss	Center	17	1-3	1-2	0-0	3	1	0	1	3
Shane Nowell	Guard	13	0-5	0-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Kelcy Phipps	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
EJ Neal Jr.	G	26	5-13	2-9	0-0	8	1	0	0	12
Bailey Nunn	G	37	1-9	1-5	7-12	5	6	2	0	10
Jacob Holt	Forward	33	3-7	0-2	4-7	10	3	0	3	10
Emil Skytta	G	23	5-6	0-1	0-1	2	1	1	1	10
Julian Vaughns	Guard	11	1-5	0-2	2-2	3	0	2	0	4
Chudi Dioramma	F	7	2-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Michael Wilson	G	21	1-4	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	3
Lachlan Brewer	G	15	1-3	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Bowyn Beatty	F	27	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	2	1	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

60.4Possessions60.4

87.7Offensive Efficiency92.7

92.7Defensive Efficiency87.7

-5.0Net Efficiency5.0

47.1%Effective FG%42.2%

46.3%True Shooting %45.6%

19.9%Turnover Rate14.9%

25.5%Free Throw Rate43.1%

43.1%3-Point Rate47.1%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.44

Game Summary

Sacramento State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 60.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.