Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

52.3%Arkansas State

47.7%James Madison

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -0.5

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -110

James Madison

18-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreJames Madison 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricJames Madison

57.7MMH Power Index52.3

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.5

105.3Defensive Efficiency109.4

7.8Net Efficiency1.1

-1.0Strength of Schedule1.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency7.9

73.3Tempo67.5

52.7%Effective FG%53.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.3%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %30.5%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.6%

5.8Average Margin0.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.3), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.5), defensive efficiency (105.3–109.4), net efficiency (7.8–1.1).

James Madison COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.2–-1.0), shooting efficiency (53.3–52.7), ball security (17.3–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

62—67

James Madison

James Madison by 5 • 67.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATJames Madison

27-61FG24-59

44.0%FG%41.0%

5-173PT6-19

29.0%3PT%32.0%

3-8FT13-18

38.0%FT%72.0%

30Rebounds41

9Offensive Rebounds15

8Assists6

12Turnovers15

7Steals6

4Blocks2

17Fouls11

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	38	11-21	3-4	1-2	0	2	0	0	26
Joseph Pinion	G	36	6-10	2-5	1-2	5	0	2	2	15
Rashaud Marshall	F	26	5-7	0-0	0-0	5	1	0	0	10
Izaiyah Nelson	F	18	3-7	0-1	1-2	5	1	2	2	7
Derrian Ford	G	31	2-9	0-5	0-0	7	2	1	0	4
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	32	0-7	0-2	0-2	2	2	2	0	0
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	18	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Josh Hill	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

James Madison

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Xavier Brown	G	37	7-12	1-3	3-7	5	2	1	0	18
Elijah Hutchins-Everett	Center	24	7-12	2-3	1-1	6	0	2	0	17
Bryce Lindsay	G	29	2-6	2-5	2-2	1	0	1	0	8
Mark Freeman	Guard	24	2-12	0-3	3-4	0	2	1	0	7
Eddie Ricks III	F	27	2-5	0-1	2-2	9	0	0	0	6
AJ Smith	F	24	1-5	0-1	2-2	9	0	0	0	4
Noah Williams	Guard	12	2-4	0-1	0-0	4	1	0	0	4
Will Lovings-Watts	Guard	5	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Ebenezer Dowuona	Forward	15	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	2	0
Luke Anderson	Not Available	3	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.7Possessions67.7

91.6Offensive Efficiency99.0

99.0Defensive Efficiency91.6

-7.4Net Efficiency7.4

48.4%Effective FG%45.8%

47.8%True Shooting %49.6%

17.7%Turnover Rate22.2%

13.1%Free Throw Rate30.5%

27.9%3-Point Rate32.2%

0.67Assist / Turnover0.40

Game Summary

James Madison won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 67.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.