Arkansas-Pine Bluff

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

39.4%Arkansas-Pine Bluff

60.6%Alabama State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAlabama State -3.8

PROJECTED TOTAL157.4

MODEL MONEYLINEAlabama State -154

Alabama State

10-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas-Pine Bluff 77

Projected Total157.4

Projected ScoreAlabama State 81

Team Comparison

Arkansas-Pine BluffMetricAlabama State

38.7MMH Power Index38

106.4Offensive Efficiency101.7

111.6Defensive Efficiency107.4

-5.2Net Efficiency-5.7

-6.0Strength of Schedule-6.2

1.3Last 10 Net Efficiency0.0

72.6Tempo71.9

51.4%Effective FG%48.2%

18.5%Turnover Rate18.2%

29.3%Offensive Rebound %32.6%

37.7%Free Throw Rate35.8%

-3.8Average Margin-4.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas-Pine Bluff HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas-Pine Bluff holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (38.7–38.0), offensive efficiency (106.4–101.7), net efficiency (-5.2–-5.7), strength of schedule (-6.0–-6.2).

Alabama State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (107.4–111.6), ball security (18.2–18.5), offensive rebounding (32.6–29.3).

Final

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

91—93

Alabama State

Alabama State by 2 • 71.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas-Pine BluffTEAM STATAlabama State

30-53FG31-57

57.0%FG%54.0%

14-293PT12-29

48.0%3PT%41.0%

17-22FT19-30

77.0%FT%63.0%

31Rebounds29

6Offensive Rebounds7

13Assists18

14Turnovers8

4Steals9

1Blocks1

22Fouls19

Player Box Score

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Doctor Bradley	G	37	12-17	2-2	9-14	7	7	1	0	35
Christian Moore	Guard	40	7-13	5-9	0-0	5	2	1	0	19
Caleb Jones	Guard	31	5-8	5-8	0-0	1	0	1	0	15
Raphael Dumont	Guard	34	2-6	2-5	2-2	7	4	0	0	8
Kyle Brown	F	29	2-5	0-3	2-2	4	0	0	1	6
Quentin Bolton	G	17	1-3	0-2	4-4	5	0	0	0	6
Klemen Vuga	Forward	8	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
Dennis Asoro	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Chop Paljor	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Alabama State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
CJ Hines	G	38	7-11	3-7	6-8	6	4	2	0	23
Amarr Knox	G	33	5-12	2-5	8-9	3	3	1	0	20
Micah Octave	G	30	5-9	1-3	2-5	3	1	2	0	13
TJ Madlock	Guard	32	4-7	2-4	2-4	6	4	1	0	12
Micah Simpson	G	19	4-7	3-6	0-0	1	5	2	0	11
JaSteven Walker	F	10	3-4	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	6
Ubong Okon	C	17	2-2	0-0	0-2	5	0	0	1	4
Tyler Mack	G	6	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Jalen Keago	G	12	0-1	0-0	1-2	1	1	0	0	1
D'Ante Bass	Forward	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.9Possessions71.9

126.6Offensive Efficiency129.3

129.3Defensive Efficiency126.6

-2.8Net Efficiency2.8

69.8%Effective FG%64.9%

71.7%True Shooting %65.3%

19.6%Turnover Rate11.1%

41.5%Free Throw Rate52.6%

54.7%3-Point Rate50.9%

0.93Assist / Turnover2.25

Game Summary

Alabama State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 71.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.