Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.3%Texas State

73.7%Troy

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTroy -7.9

PROJECTED TOTAL150.3

MODEL MONEYLINETroy -280

Troy

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 71

Projected Total150.3

Projected ScoreTroy 79

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricTroy

49.4MMH Power Index54.1

107.7Offensive Efficiency112.6

103.4Defensive Efficiency103.9

4.3Net Efficiency8.7

-4.7Strength of Schedule-2.2

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency2.0

68.6Tempo70.4

51.3%Effective FG%52.1%

18.4%Turnover Rate17.1%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %35.3%

36.0%Free Throw Rate36.8%

2.9Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Troy HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTroy holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.1–49.4), offensive efficiency (112.6–107.7), net efficiency (8.7–4.3), strength of schedule (-2.2–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–103.9), recent form (9.1–2.0).

Final

Texas State

74—73

Troy

Texas State by 1 • 66.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATTroy

25-59FG22-46

42.0%FG%48.0%

6-143PT5-17

43.0%3PT%29.0%

18-21FT24-31

86.0%FT%77.0%

34Rebounds31

15Offensive Rebounds10

13Assists12

13Turnovers15

8Steals9

2Blocks10

21Fouls21

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylan Pope	Forward	36	9-16	1-1	8-11	10	0	0	1	27
Mark Drone	G	20	5-9	1-2	6-6	2	3	2	0	17
Kaden Gumbs	G	34	5-12	1-3	0-0	6	4	2	0	11
Dylan Dawson	Guard	28	2-6	2-5	0-0	0	1	2	0	6
Tyrel Morgan	Forward	27	2-6	0-0	0-0	6	2	0	1	4
Austin Green	F	10	1-3	0-0	2-2	0	0	0	0	4
Drue Drinnon	Guard	15	1-2	1-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	3
Joshua O'Garro	G	20	0-5	0-2	2-2	6	2	1	0	2
Coleton Benson	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Nate Deer	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tayton Conerway	G	32	7-13	0-3	1-3	1	4	5	2	15
Myles Rigsby	G	32	3-7	0-1	6-8	3	0	0	1	12
Jerrell Bellamy	C	15	2-5	0-1	5-5	3	1	1	1	9
Theo Seng	F	11	1-2	1-2	6-6	2	0	0	1	9
Thomas Dowd	F	29	3-5	1-3	1-2	6	3	0	2	8
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	G	27	2-6	2-4	2-2	3	0	1	1	8
Jackson Fields	F	23	2-2	0-0	2-3	5	1	1	2	6
Cooper Campbell	G	10	2-4	1-3	1-2	4	0	1	0	6
Victor Valdes	F	11	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	3	0	0	0
Kerrington Kiel	F	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Randarius Jones	C	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.4Possessions66.4

111.4Offensive Efficiency109.9

109.9Defensive Efficiency111.4

1.5Net Efficiency-1.5

47.5%Effective FG%53.3%

53.6%True Shooting %60.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate22.8%

35.6%Free Throw Rate67.4%

23.7%3-Point Rate37.0%

1.00Assist / Turnover0.80

Game Summary

Texas State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 66.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.