Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

54.8%Arkansas State

45.2%South Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -0.3

PROJECTED TOTAL154.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -121

South Alabama

21-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total154.7

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 77

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSouth Alabama

57.7MMH Power Index51.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency6.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule-3.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

73.3Tempo67.4

52.7%Effective FG%53.2%

19.4%Turnover Rate12.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %24.9%

39.6%Free Throw Rate39.8%

5.8Average Margin4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), shooting efficiency (53.2–52.7), ball security (12.8–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

62—76

South Alabama

South Alabama by 14 • 60.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSouth Alabama

21-67FG26-46

31.0%FG%57.0%

12-493PT12-24

24.0%3PT%50.0%

8-9FT12-18

89.0%FT%67.0%

34Rebounds37

16Offensive Rebounds6

12Assists18

5Turnovers11

7Steals2

3Blocks3

17Fouls13

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	38	6-18	5-15	1-2	3	1	1	0	18
Joseph Pinion	G	32	5-18	2-14	5-5	9	2	3	0	17
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	35	4-6	2-3	2-2	2	3	2	0	12
Avery Felts	Guard	25	2-9	2-9	0-0	3	4	1	0	6
Derrian Ford	G	19	1-8	1-5	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	24	1-5	0-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	2
Izaiyah Nelson	F	12	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	2
Rashaud Marshall	F	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	2	2
Josh Hill	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Zane Butler	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	26	6-8	4-5	6-7	5	2	0	0	22
Myles Corey	G	30	5-10	1-4	0-1	2	6	0	0	11
Judah Brown	Forward	11	4-5	3-4	0-0	2	0	0	0	11
Barry Dunning Jr.	G	35	4-9	1-2	1-2	4	3	0	0	10
John Broom	G	34	3-4	2-3	2-2	9	3	0	3	10
Cantia Rahming	Forward	14	2-3	1-1	0-0	5	0	0	0	5
JJ Wheat	G	25	1-1	0-0	2-4	3	4	2	0	4
Jayden Cooper	G	9	1-4	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Dylan Fasoyiro	Guard	16	0-2	0-2	1-2	2	0	0	0	1

Advanced Game Stats

60.0Possessions60.0

103.3Offensive Efficiency126.7

126.7Defensive Efficiency103.3

-23.3Net Efficiency23.3

40.3%Effective FG%69.6%

43.5%True Shooting %69.7%

8.3%Turnover Rate18.5%

13.4%Free Throw Rate39.1%

73.1%3-Point Rate52.2%

2.40Assist / Turnover1.64

Game Summary

South Alabama won by 14 points. The game played at approximately 60.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.