Central Michigan

10-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

10.4%Central Michigan

89.6%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -14.7

PROJECTED TOTAL156.8

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -862

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCentral Michigan 71

Projected Total156.8

Projected ScoreToledo 86

Team Comparison

Central MichiganMetricToledo

44MMH Power Index58.8

105.9Offensive Efficiency116.0

111.0Defensive Efficiency109.6

-5.1Net Efficiency6.4

-0.5Strength of Schedule2.3

1.3Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

69.3Tempo69.8

52.6%Effective FG%55.1%

18.3%Turnover Rate14.6%

29.6%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

32.9%Free Throw Rate30.3%

-3.5Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY89.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–44.0), offensive efficiency (116.0–105.9), defensive efficiency (109.6–111.0), net efficiency (6.4–-5.1).

Central Michigan COUNTERS WITHfree throw rate (32.9–30.3).

Final

Central Michigan

67—69

Toledo

Toledo by 2 • 63.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Central MichiganTEAM STATToledo

24-54FG24-49

44.0%FG%49.0%

5-213PT4-13

24.0%3PT%31.0%

14-15FT17-23

93.0%FT%74.0%

28Rebounds31

9Offensive Rebounds10

10Assists17

11Turnovers14

8Steals3

2Blocks2

21Fouls16

Player Box Score

Central Michigan

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jakobi Heady	G	35	7-13	1-4	4-5	7	1	2	0	19
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	31	6-11	1-2	4-4	1	3	1	0	17
Anthony Pritchard	Guard	37	5-12	0-3	2-2	9	3	2	0	12
Ugnius Jarusevicius	F	32	3-6	1-3	4-4	6	2	0	1	11
Cayden Vasko	G	31	1-4	1-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	3
Damarion Bonds	G	12	1-4	1-4	0-0	2	0	1	1	3
Shaedon Simpson	G	11	1-3	0-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	2
Bryan Ndjonga	F	11	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Javan Simmons	F	33	5-9	0-0	7-10	8	5	0	2	17
Sam Lewis	G	31	5-9	1-3	4-4	4	1	0	0	15
Sonny Wilson	G	34	5-11	0-3	1-2	3	3	1	0	11
Bryce Ford	G	30	4-6	2-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	10
Isaiah Adams	Guard	33	3-8	1-2	2-2	4	5	2	0	9
Seth Hubbard	G	19	1-5	0-2	3-3	5	2	0	0	5
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Grgur Brcic	C	4	0-0	0-0	0-2	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.5Possessions63.5

105.5Offensive Efficiency108.7

108.7Defensive Efficiency105.5

-3.1Net Efficiency3.1

49.1%Effective FG%53.1%

54.8%True Shooting %57.6%

17.4%Turnover Rate21.9%

27.8%Free Throw Rate46.9%

38.9%3-Point Rate26.5%

0.91Assist / Turnover1.21

Game Summary

Toledo won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 63.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.