Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

36.2%Texas State

63.8%Southern Miss

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSouthern Miss -4.0

PROJECTED TOTAL147.9

MODEL MONEYLINESouthern Miss -176

Southern Miss

19-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 72

Projected Total147.9

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 76

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricSouthern Miss

49.4MMH Power Index49.9

107.7Offensive Efficiency106.1

103.4Defensive Efficiency104.9

4.3Net Efficiency1.2

-4.7Strength of Schedule-0.2

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency3.8

68.6Tempo70.4

51.3%Effective FG%49.9%

18.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

36.0%Free Throw Rate43.9%

2.9Average Margin0.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY63.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (107.7–106.1), defensive efficiency (103.4–104.9), net efficiency (4.3–1.2), recent form (9.1–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (49.9–49.4), strength of schedule (-0.2–-4.7), free throw rate (43.9–36.0).

Final

Texas State

88—92

Southern Miss

Southern Miss by 4 • 84.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATSouthern Miss

33-74FG32-79

45.0%FG%41.0%

3-143PT10-25

21.0%3PT%40.0%

19-26FT18-23

73.0%FT%78.0%

45Rebounds50

16Offensive Rebounds21

9Assists15

14Turnovers16

9Steals10

8Blocks8

18Fouls19

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Drone	G	33	12-20	3-5	3-4	4	2	4	2	30
Tylan Pope	Forward	23	5-11	0-1	8-10	6	0	1	2	18
Kaden Gumbs	G	41	6-12	0-1	4-6	5	5	1	0	16
Tyrel Morgan	Forward	43	6-11	0-0	3-4	8	0	2	1	15
Austin Green	F	19	2-3	0-0	1-2	7	0	0	1	5
Joshua O'Garro	G	37	1-7	0-0	0-0	7	1	1	2	2
Coleton Benson	G	13	1-5	0-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Dylan Dawson	Guard	8	0-4	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Nate Deer	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Bessanty Saragba	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	20	7-13	6-10	0-0	2	0	1	0	20
Denijay Harris	Forward	38	6-12	0-1	7-8	16	0	1	0	19
DeAntoni Gordon	Forward	34	5-12	0-1	3-4	6	0	3	6	13
Andre Curbelo	Guard	28	6-15	0-1	1-3	3	6	2	0	13
Neftali Alvarez	Guard	33	3-8	0-1	5-6	4	4	2	0	11
Cobie Montgomery	Guard	21	3-7	3-6	2-2	2	1	0	1	11
Christian Watson	G	39	2-11	1-5	0-0	5	3	1	0	5
Christian Reid	Guard	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	1	0
Brewer Carruth	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

84.7Possessions84.7

103.9Offensive Efficiency108.6

108.6Defensive Efficiency103.9

-4.7Net Efficiency4.7

46.6%Effective FG%46.8%

51.0%True Shooting %51.2%

16.6%Turnover Rate18.8%

35.1%Free Throw Rate29.1%

18.9%3-Point Rate31.6%

0.64Assist / Turnover0.94

Game Summary

Southern Miss won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 84.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.