North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

51.5%North Carolina

48.5%NC State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNC State -0.9

PROJECTED TOTAL158.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Carolina -106

NC State

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 79

Projected Total158.6

Projected ScoreNC State 80

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricNC State

65.2MMH Power Index60.1

115.5Offensive Efficiency118.4

103.8Defensive Efficiency108.6

11.7Net Efficiency9.8

7.6Strength of Schedule6.4

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.9

69.0Tempo70.2

54.6%Effective FG%55.1%

13.9%Turnover Rate13.1%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

38.1%Free Throw Rate35.7%

8.1Average Margin6.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY51.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–60.1), defensive efficiency (103.8–108.6), net efficiency (11.7–9.8), strength of schedule (7.6–6.4).

NC State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (118.4–115.5), shooting efficiency (55.1–54.6), ball security (13.1–13.9).

Final

North Carolina

63—61

NC State

North Carolina by 2 • 63.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATNC State

26-60FG24-65

43.0%FG%37.0%

7-193PT3-19

37.0%3PT%16.0%

4-8FT10-12

50.0%FT%83.0%

40Rebounds38

13Offensive Rebounds16

17Assists7

12Turnovers9

5Steals8

5Blocks6

10Fouls10

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ian Jackson	G	32	8-15	5-8	0-0	2	1	1	0	21
RJ Davis	Guard	36	5-13	1-3	0-0	2	2	0	0	11
Jalen Washington	C	27	4-6	0-1	3-4	12	1	0	3	11
Drake Powell	Guard	34	3-7	1-3	1-2	3	1	1	1	8
Elliot Cadeau	G	29	2-9	0-3	0-0	2	11	1	0	4
Seth Trimble	G	25	2-6	0-1	0-0	5	1	2	0	4
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	13	2-4	0-0	0-2	9	0	0	1	4
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Hill	G	33	10-19	0-2	0-0	9	1	2	0	20
Jayden Taylor	Guard	30	4-10	2-5	2-2	3	0	2	0	12
Michael O'Connell	Guard	35	3-9	1-3	2-2	1	4	1	0	9
Dontrez Styles	Guard	23	3-8	0-3	1-3	5	1	2	1	7
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	32	2-9	0-2	1-1	14	0	1	2	5
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	18	1-4	0-2	2-2	2	0	0	3	4
Ismael Diouf	F	8	1-3	0-1	2-2	0	0	0	0	4
Breon Pass	Guard	16	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Bryce Heard	G	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.3Possessions63.3

99.5Offensive Efficiency96.4

96.4Defensive Efficiency99.5

3.2Net Efficiency-3.2

49.2%Effective FG%39.2%

49.4%True Shooting %43.1%

19.1%Turnover Rate14.1%

13.3%Free Throw Rate18.5%

31.7%3-Point Rate29.2%

1.42Assist / Turnover0.78

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 63.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.