Valparaiso

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.5%Valparaiso

71.5%Murray State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMurray State -7.0

PROJECTED TOTAL156.0

MODEL MONEYLINEMurray State -251

Murray State

20-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreValparaiso 75

Projected Total156.0

Projected ScoreMurray State 81

Team Comparison

ValparaisoMetricMurray State

49.9MMH Power Index53.6

106.6Offensive Efficiency115.0

105.8Defensive Efficiency111.0

0.8Net Efficiency4.0

0.3Strength of Schedule3.5

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.5

67.5Tempo72.3

48.7%Effective FG%54.0%

15.6%Turnover Rate16.3%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %32.7%

40.0%Free Throw Rate39.1%

0.5Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Murray State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMurray State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.6–49.9), offensive efficiency (115.0–106.6), net efficiency (4.0–0.8), strength of schedule (3.5–0.3).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.8–111.0), recent form (-0.1–-9.5), ball security (15.6–16.3).

Final

Valparaiso

47—58

Murray State

Murray State by 11 • 62.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ValparaisoTEAM STATMurray State

19-55FG18-53

35.0%FG%34.0%

7-243PT4-16

29.0%3PT%25.0%

2-3FT18-24

67.0%FT%75.0%

35Rebounds41

7Offensive Rebounds11

7Assists9

12Turnovers11

5Steals4

7Blocks—

19Fouls13

Player Box Score

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cooper Schwieger	F	36	6-11	0-2	0-1	7	1	0	5	12
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	25	3-9	3-7	2-2	3	0	2	0	11
Tyler Schmidt	G	27	4-10	1-4	0-0	5	2	1	0	9
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	G	33	3-9	1-4	0-0	0	1	1	0	7
Justus McNair	G	16	2-5	1-2	0-0	5	0	0	1	5
All Wright	G	22	1-10	1-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Kaspar Sepp	F	27	0-0	0-0	0-0	9	3	1	0	0
Isaiah Shaw	G	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	1	0
Devon Ellis	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Carson Schwieger	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Nick Ellington	F	28	5-9	0-0	5-7	8	1	1	15
Terence Harcum	Guard	27	3-12	2-7	3-3	3	0	0	11
Alden Applewhite	F	24	3-6	1-3	1-3	1	1	0	8
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin	F	12	3-10	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	8
JaCobi Wood	Guard	36	2-6	1-3	2-4	6	4	0	7
AJ Ferguson	Guard	33	1-5	0-1	2-2	6	0	1	4
Justin Morgan	Guard	15	0-2	0-1	3-3	5	1	0	3
Kylen Milton	Guard	25	1-3	0-1	0-0	7	2	2	2

Advanced Game Stats

62.9Possessions62.9

74.7Offensive Efficiency92.2

92.2Defensive Efficiency74.7

-17.5Net Efficiency17.5

40.9%Effective FG%37.7%

41.6%True Shooting %45.0%

19.5%Turnover Rate17.1%

5.5%Free Throw Rate45.3%

43.6%3-Point Rate30.2%

0.58Assist / Turnover0.82

Game Summary

Murray State won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 62.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.