Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.3%Arkansas State

52.7%Troy

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTroy -2.1

PROJECTED TOTAL159.8

MODEL MONEYLINETroy -111

Troy

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total159.8

Projected ScoreTroy 81

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricTroy

57.7MMH Power Index54.1

113.1Offensive Efficiency112.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency8.7

-1.0Strength of Schedule-2.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency2.0

73.3Tempo70.4

52.7%Effective FG%52.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.1%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %35.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.8%

5.8Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.2), recent form (15.2–2.0).

Troy COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), net efficiency (8.7–7.8), ball security (17.1–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

84—78

Troy

Arkansas State by 6 • 65.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATTroy

26-52FG24-52

50.0%FG%46.0%

9-233PT10-25

39.0%3PT%40.0%

23-27FT20-28

85.0%FT%71.0%

29Rebounds32

8Offensive Rebounds11

15Assists15

8Turnovers11

10Steals6

1Blocks6

22Fouls19

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	36	8-15	2-4	3-3	7	2	2	0	21
Joseph Pinion	G	21	5-10	5-9	2-2	3	0	1	0	17
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	36	5-7	1-2	4-4	3	8	1	0	15
Kobe Julien	Forward	27	2-5	0-3	6-9	5	0	2	0	10
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	14	1-4	0-2	8-9	2	1	1	0	10
Rashaud Marshall	F	19	3-4	0-0	0-0	0	1	2	0	6
Derrian Ford	G	13	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	3
Izaiyah Nelson	F	21	1-3	0-0	0-0	5	2	0	1	2
Avery Felts	Guard	13	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	0

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tayton Conerway	G	34	8-12	4-7	12-15	4	7	4	0	32
Theo Seng	F	22	6-7	3-4	3-4	4	0	0	2	18
Thomas Dowd	F	21	2-5	0-2	2-4	7	2	0	1	6
Cooper Campbell	G	28	2-6	1-3	0-0	2	1	2	0	5
Jackson Fields	F	18	1-5	0-2	3-4	2	1	0	0	5
Myles Rigsby	G	7	2-2	1-1	0-1	0	0	0	0	5
Randarius Jones	C	8	2-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	4
Victor Valdes	F	33	1-7	1-5	0-0	4	2	0	1	3
Jerrell Bellamy	C	11	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	1	0
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	G	10	0-3	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Kerrington Kiel	F	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.1Possessions65.1

129.0Offensive Efficiency119.8

119.8Defensive Efficiency129.0

9.2Net Efficiency-9.2

58.7%Effective FG%55.8%

64.8%True Shooting %59.7%

12.3%Turnover Rate16.8%

51.9%Free Throw Rate53.8%

44.2%3-Point Rate48.1%

1.88Assist / Turnover1.36

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 65.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.