Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

59.2%Illinois State

40.8%Drake

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -2.2

PROJECTED TOTAL147.7

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -145

Drake

14-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 75

Projected Total147.7

Projected ScoreDrake 73

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricDrake

54.3MMH Power Index46.4

110.6Offensive Efficiency109.5

101.4Defensive Efficiency109.1

9.2Net Efficiency0.4

1.0Strength of Schedule0.3

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.3

67.5Tempo68.6

54.3%Effective FG%52.2%

16.8%Turnover Rate14.9%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %27.2%

32.0%Free Throw Rate34.4%

6.2Average Margin0.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–46.4), offensive efficiency (110.6–109.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–109.1), net efficiency (9.2–0.4).

Drake COUNTERS WITHball security (14.9–16.8), free throw rate (34.4–32.0).

Final

Illinois State

62—66

Drake

Drake by 4 • 52.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATDrake

24-48FG23-44

50.0%FG%52.0%

6-213PT11-23

29.0%3PT%48.0%

8-11FT9-11

73.0%FT%82.0%

22Rebounds25

7Offensive Rebounds6

10Assists10

6Turnovers9

5Steals4

1Blocks4

12Fouls12

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	27	8-12	0-1	4-5	4	1	0	1	20
Dalton Banks	Guard	29	5-10	1-3	2-2	3	2	0	0	13
Landon Wolf	G	36	4-7	2-4	2-4	2	2	2	0	12
Johnny Kinziger	G	37	5-11	1-7	0-0	3	0	2	0	11
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	32	2-4	2-4	0-0	0	2	1	0	6
Ty Pence	G	17	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	2	0	0	0
Caden Boser	Forward	11	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Cade Norris	G	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Drake

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Daniel Abreu	Forward	37	7-9	4-5	5-5	4	0	1	2	23
Bennett Stirtz	G	40	7-15	4-9	2-2	1	8	2	0	20
Mitch Mascari	Guard	40	3-8	3-8	0-0	2	1	0	0	9
Kael Combs	G	26	3-3	0-0	1-2	4	1	0	0	7
Nate Ferguson	Forward	11	2-4	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Cam Manyawu	F	25	1-4	0-0	1-2	7	0	1	2	3
Isaiah Jackson	Guard	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Tavion Banks	G	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Isaia Howard	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

52.2Possessions52.2

118.8Offensive Efficiency126.4

126.4Defensive Efficiency118.8

-7.7Net Efficiency7.7

56.3%Effective FG%64.8%

58.2%True Shooting %67.0%

11.5%Turnover Rate17.2%

22.9%Free Throw Rate25.0%

43.8%3-Point Rate52.3%

1.67Assist / Turnover1.11

Game Summary

Drake won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 52.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.