Toledo

19-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

80.9%Toledo

19.1%Ball State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -7.4

PROJECTED TOTAL148.4

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -424

Ball State

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 78

Projected Total148.4

Projected ScoreBall State 70

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricBall State

58.8MMH Power Index41.3

116.0Offensive Efficiency101.7

109.6Defensive Efficiency104.7

6.4Net Efficiency-3.0

2.3Strength of Schedule-3.9

10.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.9

69.8Tempo66.4

55.1%Effective FG%48.3%

14.6%Turnover Rate16.0%

30.4%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

30.3%Free Throw Rate33.0%

4.5Average Margin-2.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–41.3), offensive efficiency (116.0–101.7), net efficiency (6.4–-3.0), strength of schedule (2.3–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–109.6), free throw rate (33.0–30.3).

Final

Toledo

93—75

Ball State

Toledo by 18 • 64.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ToledoTEAM STATBall State

36-67FG29-54

54.0%FG%54.0%

6-163PT4-16

38.0%3PT%25.0%

15-17FT13-21

88.0%FT%62.0%

37Rebounds26

15Offensive Rebounds8

10Assists15

5Turnovers7

3Steals4

1Blocks2

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sam Lewis	G	33	7-15	3-7	4-4	2	1	0	1	21
Isaiah Adams	Guard	28	9-16	2-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	20
Javan Simmons	F	27	5-7	0-0	6-6	12	2	0	0	16
Sonny Wilson	G	34	7-13	0-2	1-3	7	3	0	0	15
Bryce Ford	G	30	4-6	0-0	4-4	7	0	1	0	12
Seth Hubbard	G	13	2-6	0-2	0-0	1	0	1	0	4
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	20	1-3	1-2	0-0	0	1	1	0	3
Grgur Brcic	C	12	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Murphy	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Ode	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Payton Sparks	Center	29	9-12	0-0	2-5	9	1	0	0	20
Fatt Hill	G	35	5-13	0-2	7-11	4	6	1	0	17
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	31	4-7	1-4	3-3	2	0	0	2	12
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	27	5-10	2-7	0-0	2	1	0	0	12
Juanse Gorosito	G	14	4-5	1-2	1-2	0	2	2	0	10
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	24	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	2	1	0	2
TJ Burch	G	5	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Joey Hart	G	15	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	2	0	0	0
Mason Jones	F	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Ben Hendriks	Center	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Zane Doughty	C	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.1Possessions64.1

145.1Offensive Efficiency117.0

117.0Defensive Efficiency145.1

28.1Net Efficiency-28.1

58.2%Effective FG%57.4%

61.9%True Shooting %58.6%

7.7%Turnover Rate11.1%

25.4%Free Throw Rate38.9%

23.9%3-Point Rate29.6%

2.00Assist / Turnover2.14

Game Summary

Toledo won by 18 points. The game played at approximately 64.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.