Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

29.6%Missouri State

70.4%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -7.6

PROJECTED TOTAL146.9

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -238

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 70

Projected Total146.9

Projected ScoreIllinois State 77

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricIllinois State

51.1MMH Power Index54.3

110.5Offensive Efficiency110.6

108.4Defensive Efficiency101.4

2.1Net Efficiency9.2

0.5Strength of Schedule1.0

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

67.9Tempo67.5

51.8%Effective FG%54.3%

16.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

42.9%Free Throw Rate32.0%

1.4Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–51.1), offensive efficiency (110.6–110.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–108.4), net efficiency (9.2–2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-2.1–-4.4), ball security (16.4–16.8), offensive rebounding (33.0–28.3).

Final

Missouri State

68—74

Illinois State

Illinois State by 6 • 62.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATIllinois State

20-43FG24-52

47.0%FG%46.0%

11-253PT10-27

44.0%3PT%37.0%

17-24FT16-21

71.0%FT%76.0%

25Rebounds33

4Offensive Rebounds12

12Assists14

12Turnovers12

5Steals6

1Blocks—

20Fouls19

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dez White	G	31	8-12	7-11	1-2	0	1	0	0	24
Vincent Brady II	G	34	2-6	2-6	7-8	1	4	2	0	13
Michael Osei-Bonsu	F	21	3-6	0-0	3-6	5	2	0	0	9
Zaxton King	G	30	3-4	2-3	0-0	4	1	1	0	8
Wesley Oba	Forward	18	1-2	0-1	5-6	4	1	0	1	7
Jalen Hampton	G	22	2-3	0-0	0-0	8	1	1	0	4
Chase Martin	Guard	15	1-6	0-3	1-2	0	0	1	0	3
Logan Epes	G	15	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Mozae Downing-Rivers	G	13	0-4	0-1	0-0	0	2	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	29	7-12	2-5	3-3	1	2	1	19
Landon Wolf	G	34	4-8	3-7	6-7	11	2	2	17
Chase Walker	F	33	5-13	1-2	3-5	3	3	0	14
Dalton Banks	Guard	36	4-6	2-3	3-4	6	5	2	13
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	18	2-6	1-5	0-0	2	0	0	5
Ty Pence	G	27	1-3	1-3	1-2	6	1	1	4
Caden Boser	Forward	12	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	2
Cade Norris	G	10	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.2Possessions62.2

109.3Offensive Efficiency119.0

119.0Defensive Efficiency109.3

-9.6Net Efficiency9.6

59.3%Effective FG%55.8%

62.5%True Shooting %59.7%

19.2%Turnover Rate19.4%

55.8%Free Throw Rate40.4%

58.1%3-Point Rate51.9%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.17

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 62.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.