Southern Miss

19-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

38.9%Southern Miss

61.1%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -4.2

PROJECTED TOTAL147.9

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -157

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 72

Projected Total147.9

Projected ScoreTexas State 76

Team Comparison

Southern MissMetricTexas State

49.9MMH Power Index49.4

106.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

104.9Defensive Efficiency103.4

1.2Net Efficiency4.3

-0.2Strength of Schedule-4.7

3.8Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

70.4Tempo68.6

49.9%Effective FG%51.3%

18.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

32.3%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

43.9%Free Throw Rate36.0%

0.9Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY61.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (107.7–106.1), defensive efficiency (103.4–104.9), net efficiency (4.3–1.2), recent form (9.1–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (49.9–49.4), strength of schedule (-0.2–-4.7), free throw rate (43.9–36.0).

Final

Southern Miss

82—85

Texas State

Texas State by 3 • 78.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Southern MissTEAM STATTexas State

29-71FG27-68

41.0%FG%40.0%

8-243PT8-17

33.0%3PT%47.0%

16-21FT23-31

76.0%FT%74.0%

44Rebounds43

14Offensive Rebounds13

18Assists19

13Turnovers8

4Steals10

7Blocks6

22Fouls16

Player Box Score

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Denijay Harris	Forward	43	8-15	0-3	2-4	14	1	0	3	18
Neftali Alvarez	Guard	35	5-11	1-2	6-7	3	4	2	0	17
Cobie Montgomery	Guard	27	6-11	4-9	0-0	2	1	0	0	16
John Wade III	Guard	23	2-7	2-3	3-4	9	2	0	0	9
Andre Curbelo	Guard	20	3-13	1-5	2-2	1	3	1	2	9
Christian Watson	G	35	2-7	0-2	1-1	2	5	0	1	5
DeAntoni Gordon	Forward	16	2-5	0-0	0-0	7	2	0	0	4
Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	9	1-1	0-0	2-3	0	0	0	0	4
Christian Reid	Guard	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	0
Brewer Carruth	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylan Pope	Forward	38	8-20	1-2	11-14	12	2	0	5	28
Coleton Benson	G	38	7-17	5-10	4-5	2	3	2	0	23
Dylan Dawson	Guard	44	3-9	2-5	2-2	2	3	0	1	10
Austin Green	F	25	4-7	0-0	2-4	6	2	1	0	10
Joshua O'Garro	G	44	3-7	0-0	1-2	12	2	1	0	7
Christian Turner	Forward	33	2-8	0-0	3-4	2	7	6	0	7
Nate Deer	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

78.9Possessions78.9

103.9Offensive Efficiency107.7

107.7Defensive Efficiency103.9

-3.8Net Efficiency3.8

46.5%Effective FG%45.6%

50.6%True Shooting %51.4%

16.3%Turnover Rate10.3%

29.6%Free Throw Rate45.6%

33.8%3-Point Rate25.0%

1.38Assist / Turnover2.38

Game Summary

Texas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 78.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.