Sacramento State

10-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

15.4%Sacramento State

84.6%Northern Colorado

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthern Colorado -12.8

PROJECTED TOTAL163.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorthern Colorado -549

Northern Colorado

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSacramento State 75

Projected Total163.6

Projected ScoreNorthern Colorado 88

Team Comparison

Sacramento StateMetricNorthern Colorado

43MMH Power Index53.7

106.1Offensive Efficiency116.0

112.0Defensive Efficiency107.6

-5.9Net Efficiency8.4

0.9Strength of Schedule-4.3

-7.8Last 10 Net Efficiency10.8

73.2Tempo71.1

48.5%Effective FG%56.9%

14.2%Turnover Rate15.3%

25.1%Offensive Rebound %27.9%

41.8%Free Throw Rate27.8%

-4.3Average Margin6.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northern Colorado HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY84.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthern Colorado holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.7–43.0), offensive efficiency (116.0–106.1), defensive efficiency (107.6–112.0), net efficiency (8.4–-5.9).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.9–-4.3), ball security (14.2–15.3), free throw rate (41.8–27.8).

Final

Sacramento State

64—68

Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado by 4 • 62.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Sacramento StateTEAM STATNorthern Colorado

23-51FG19-45

45.0%FG%42.0%

6-193PT8-23

32.0%3PT%35.0%

12-15FT22-27

80.0%FT%81.0%

28Rebounds30

9Offensive Rebounds9

8Assists12

14Turnovers13

7Steals5

7Blocks7

22Fouls17

Player Box Score

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jacob Holt	Forward	35	10-13	0-1	5-6	9	0	0	4	25
Michael Wilson	G	37	3-7	2-4	3-3	7	1	3	1	11
EJ Neal Jr.	G	37	3-6	2-4	0-0	0	1	1	0	8
Lachlan Brewer	G	31	3-5	2-3	0-0	2	2	2	0	8
Julian Vaughns	Guard	9	2-6	0-3	1-2	1	0	0	0	5
Bailey Nunn	G	40	2-13	0-4	0-0	4	4	1	0	4
Chudi Dioramma	F	10	0-1	0-0	3-4	1	0	0	2	3
Leo Ricketts	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northern Colorado

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Hawthorne	Forward	34	4-10	3-5	6-8	3	0	1	2	17
Langston Reynolds	G	38	5-6	0-1	4-5	7	3	1	1	14
Jaron Rillie	Guard	26	1-3	0-1	9-10	4	2	1	0	11
Marcell McCreary	G	11	3-4	2-3	1-2	2	0	0	0	9
Brock Wisne	F	18	3-5	0-1	2-2	6	1	0	4	8
Zach Bloch	G	28	2-9	2-8	0-0	1	2	0	0	6
Quinn Denker	G	25	1-5	1-4	0-0	1	3	1	0	3
Taeshaud Jackson	F	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
William Humer	F	8	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.5Possessions62.5

102.4Offensive Efficiency108.8

108.8Defensive Efficiency102.4

-6.4Net Efficiency6.4

51.0%Effective FG%51.1%

55.1%True Shooting %58.8%

22.2%Turnover Rate21.0%

29.4%Free Throw Rate60.0%

37.3%3-Point Rate51.1%

0.57Assist / Turnover0.92

Game Summary

Northern Colorado won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 62.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.