Murray State

20-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

35.0%Murray State

65.0%Southern Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSouthern Illinois -4.9

PROJECTED TOTAL155.6

MODEL MONEYLINESouthern Illinois -186

Southern Illinois

16-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMurray State 75

Projected Total155.6

Projected ScoreSouthern Illinois 80

Team Comparison

Murray StateMetricSouthern Illinois

53.6MMH Power Index54.6

115.0Offensive Efficiency103.4

111.0Defensive Efficiency98.5

4.0Net Efficiency4.9

3.5Strength of Schedule1.6

-9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency7.7

72.3Tempo70.6

54.0%Effective FG%49.5%

16.3%Turnover Rate17.0%

32.7%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

39.1%Free Throw Rate32.3%

2.9Average Margin3.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Murray State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY65.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMurray State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (115.0–103.4), strength of schedule (3.5–1.6), shooting efficiency (54.0–49.5), ball security (16.3–17.0).

Southern Illinois COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (54.6–53.6), defensive efficiency (98.5–111.0), net efficiency (4.9–4.0).

Final

Murray State

74—64

Southern Illinois

Murray State by 10 • 65.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Murray StateTEAM STATSouthern Illinois

26-53FG23-54

49.0%FG%43.0%

5-183PT3-20

28.0%3PT%15.0%

17-23FT15-21

74.0%FT%71.0%

36Rebounds30

8Offensive Rebounds8

16Assists11

8Turnovers10

5Steals5

4Blocks5

17Fouls17

Player Box Score

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
AJ Ferguson	Guard	40	8-12	1-4	5-7	8	3	0	1	22
Nick Ellington	F	33	6-6	0-0	2-4	7	0	1	3	14
JaCobi Wood	Guard	38	2-8	1-5	4-5	3	7	2	0	9
Terence Harcum	Guard	36	4-12	0-3	1-2	7	3	0	0	9
Kylen Milton	Guard	22	3-6	1-1	1-1	4	1	2	0	8
Alden Applewhite	F	20	1-4	1-1	4-4	2	2	0	0	7
Justin Morgan	Guard	11	2-5	1-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	5

Southern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ali Dibba	G	39	9-16	0-3	3-5	6	2	1	2	21
Kennard Davis Jr.	F	38	6-16	1-8	7-8	7	2	2	0	20
Jarrett Hensley	Forward	29	4-7	2-3	1-1	5	1	1	1	11
Sheridan Sharp	G	19	2-4	0-1	1-3	0	2	0	0	5
Drew Steffe	G	32	1-7	0-4	1-2	2	2	1	1	3
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	22	0-2	0-1	2-2	2	1	0	1	2
Rolyns Aligbe	F	8	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Davion Sykes	G	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.0Possessions65.0

113.8Offensive Efficiency98.5

98.5Defensive Efficiency113.8

15.4Net Efficiency-15.4

53.8%Effective FG%45.4%

57.9%True Shooting %50.0%

12.5%Turnover Rate15.2%

43.4%Free Throw Rate38.9%

34.0%3-Point Rate37.0%

2.00Assist / Turnover1.10

Game Summary

Murray State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 65.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.