San Diego State

22-10

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

97.4%San Diego State

2.6%Air Force

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSan Diego State -23.9

PROJECTED TOTAL145.7

MODEL MONEYLINESan Diego State -3746

Air Force

3-29

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSan Diego State 85

Projected Total145.7

Projected ScoreAir Force 61

Team Comparison

San Diego StateMetricAir Force

60.1MMH Power Index23

110.3Offensive Efficiency91.3

99.3Defensive Efficiency118.5

11.0Net Efficiency-27.2

3.8Strength of Schedule6.2

0.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-33.5

70.8Tempo67.4

53.2%Effective FG%49.0%

17.2%Turnover Rate21.9%

30.8%Offensive Rebound %21.4%

39.6%Free Throw Rate35.9%

7.8Average Margin-18.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

San Diego State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY97.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSan Diego State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (60.1–23.0), offensive efficiency (110.3–91.3), defensive efficiency (99.3–118.5), net efficiency (11.0–-27.2).

Air Force COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.2–3.8).

Final

San Diego State

77—76

Air Force

San Diego State by 1 • 69.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

San Diego StateTEAM STATAir Force

27-65FG19-44

42.0%FG%43.0%

6-273PT8-20

22.0%3PT%40.0%

17-27FT30-44

63.0%FT%68.0%

37Rebounds39

15Offensive Rebounds11

10Assists11

6Turnovers17

8Steals3

7Blocks1

31Fouls24

Player Box Score

San Diego State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Wayne McKinney III	Guard	25	6-11	1-4	5-7	3	0	0	0	18
Jared Coleman-Jones	Forward	33	5-9	2-3	2-5	6	0	1	1	14
Taj DeGourville	G	26	5-9	1-3	0-0	7	0	1	0	11
Magoon Gwath	F	32	3-7	0-2	3-5	7	3	1	2	9
Miles Byrd	G	25	2-9	0-6	4-4	2	1	4	3	8
BJ Davis	G	30	2-8	0-3	2-4	2	2	0	0	6
Nick Boyd	G	23	2-10	1-5	1-2	2	3	0	0	6
Kimo Ferrari	Guard	11	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	3
Miles Heide	F	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	0	2
Pharaoh Compton	F	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Shay Johnson Jr.	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Air Force

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Wesley Celichowski	C	34	8-8	1-1	5-6	2	0	0	1	22
Ethan Taylor	Guard	43	4-10	4-8	9-11	8	1	1	0	21
Luke Kearney	F	42	3-9	3-8	5-7	4	2	1	0	14
Caleb Walker	F	11	2-3	0-0	3-7	1	0	0	0	7
Kyle Marshall	G	39	1-6	0-0	4-7	11	0	0	0	6
Jeffrey Mills	Guard	26	1-4	0-2	2-2	3	2	1	0	4
Yoda Oke	Guard	19	0-2	0-1	2-4	5	3	0	0	2
Byron Brown	Guard	11	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	3	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.9Possessions69.9

110.2Offensive Efficiency108.7

108.7Defensive Efficiency110.2

1.4Net Efficiency-1.4

46.2%Effective FG%52.3%

49.5%True Shooting %58.6%

8.7%Turnover Rate24.0%

41.5%Free Throw Rate100.0%

41.5%3-Point Rate45.5%

1.67Assist / Turnover0.65

Game Summary

San Diego State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 69.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.