Idaho State

13-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

45.4%Idaho State

54.6%Sacramento State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSacramento State -1.6

PROJECTED TOTAL158.5

MODEL MONEYLINESacramento State -120

Sacramento State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIdaho State 78

Projected Total158.5

Projected ScoreSacramento State 80

Team Comparison

Idaho StateMetricSacramento State

45.9MMH Power Index43

111.0Offensive Efficiency106.1

113.4Defensive Efficiency112.0

-2.4Net Efficiency-5.9

0.2Strength of Schedule0.9

-9.6Last 10 Net Efficiency-7.8

67.1Tempo73.2

52.2%Effective FG%48.5%

16.5%Turnover Rate14.2%

33.9%Offensive Rebound %25.1%

39.1%Free Throw Rate41.8%

-1.6Average Margin-4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Idaho State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIdaho State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (45.9–43.0), offensive efficiency (111.0–106.1), net efficiency (-2.4–-5.9), shooting efficiency (52.2–48.5).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (112.0–113.4), strength of schedule (0.9–0.2), recent form (-7.8–-9.6).

Final

Idaho State

71—75

Sacramento State

Sacramento State by 4 • 66.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Idaho StateTEAM STATSacramento State

22-57FG25-54

39.0%FG%46.0%

6-223PT10-22

27.0%3PT%45.0%

21-31FT15-22

68.0%FT%68.0%

41Rebounds31

17Offensive Rebounds9

12Assists16

11Turnovers12

7Steals2

3Blocks2

18Fouls26

Player Box Score

Idaho State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dylan Darling	G	39	6-12	1-3	12-16	3	7	1	0	25
Jake O'Neil	Guard	32	5-13	0-4	6-8	12	1	1	0	16
Evan Otten	F	22	4-4	1-1	1-1	4	0	1	2	10
Connor Hollenbeck	F	27	2-5	2-4	0-0	3	2	1	0	6
AJ Burgin	Guard	13	2-9	2-6	0-0	3	1	0	0	6
Jackson Greene	Forward	25	1-1	0-0	1-2	6	0	1	0	3
Isaiah Griffin	F	25	1-9	0-2	0-2	1	1	1	0	2
Blake Daberkow	F	6	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	2
Jaedyn Brown	G	11	0-2	0-2	1-2	2	0	1	0	1

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Julian Vaughns	Guard	35	7-15	4-7	3-6	7	3	1	1	21
EJ Neal Jr.	G	38	3-7	1-4	5-5	5	4	0	0	12
Jacob Holt	Forward	29	5-12	0-2	0-2	3	1	0	0	10
Chudi Dioramma	F	11	4-5	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	0	10
Michael Wilson	G	26	2-4	1-3	3-3	1	1	1	0	8
Leo Ricketts	Guard	19	2-4	2-4	0-0	3	1	0	0	6
Lachlan Brewer	G	15	2-4	2-2	0-0	3	0	0	1	6
Deonte Williams	Guard	6	0-1	0-0	2-4	3	1	0	0	2
Bailey Nunn	G	21	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	5	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.6Possessions66.6

106.6Offensive Efficiency112.6

112.6Defensive Efficiency106.6

-6.0Net Efficiency6.0

43.9%Effective FG%55.6%

49.5%True Shooting %58.2%

16.7%Turnover Rate17.8%

54.4%Free Throw Rate40.7%

38.6%3-Point Rate40.7%

1.09Assist / Turnover1.33

Game Summary

Sacramento State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 66.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.