Saint Joseph's

24-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.9%Saint Joseph's

79.1%Dayton

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDayton -8.8

PROJECTED TOTAL143.8

MODEL MONEYLINEDayton -378

Dayton

25-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSaint Joseph's 68

Projected Total143.8

Projected ScoreDayton 76

Team Comparison

Saint Joseph'sMetricDayton

52.5MMH Power Index59.9

106.5Offensive Efficiency108.5

102.2Defensive Efficiency101.5

4.3Net Efficiency7.0

-0.2Strength of Schedule5.7

6.7Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

68.7Tempo68.3

49.8%Effective FG%52.0%

17.0%Turnover Rate16.9%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

31.1%Free Throw Rate47.6%

2.9Average Margin4.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Dayton HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDayton holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.9–52.5), offensive efficiency (108.5–106.5), defensive efficiency (101.5–102.2), net efficiency (7.0–4.3).

Saint Joseph's COUNTERS WITHrecent form (6.7–6.4), offensive rebounding (32.4–26.7).

Final

Saint Joseph's

72—77

Dayton

Dayton by 5 • 66.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Saint Joseph'sTEAM STATDayton

26-62FG27-55

42.0%FG%49.0%

9-333PT8-19

27.0%3PT%42.0%

11-13FT15-18

85.0%FT%83.0%

36Rebounds31

11Offensive Rebounds5

13Assists15

9Turnovers8

4Steals6

4Blocks1

15Fouls13

Player Box Score

Saint Joseph's

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Erik Reynolds II	Guard	38	8-19	4-13	1-1	5	3	0	0	21
Xzayvier Brown	G	38	6-12	2-5	4-4	4	5	1	0	18
Rasheer Fleming	Forward	32	5-11	1-5	2-2	7	3	1	2	13
Derek Simpson	G	26	3-10	1-4	0-0	5	1	0	0	7
Dasear Haskins	G	18	1-3	0-2	4-6	3	1	0	0	6
Justice Ajogbor	C	22	2-3	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	2	4
Anthony Finkley	F	24	1-4	1-4	0-0	4	0	2	0	3
Shawn Simmons II	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Dayton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nate Santos	Forward	35	9-14	4-4	2-2	8	0	0	0	24
Amaël L'Etang	F	26	5-12	3-9	1-3	6	2	1	1	14
Javon Bennett	G	30	4-6	1-2	3-4	1	1	1	0	12
Malachi Smith	G	29	3-8	0-0	6-6	3	8	1	0	12
Posh Alexander	Guard	10	3-5	0-1	1-1	0	3	1	0	7
Isaac Jack	F	6	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	4
Enoch Cheeks	Guard	34	1-4	0-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Jaiun Simon	F	2	0-0	0-0	2-2	0	0	0	0	2
Jacob Conner	F	20	0-1	0-1	0-0	4	1	0	0	0
Zed Key	Forward	8	0-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.4Possessions66.4

108.4Offensive Efficiency116.0

116.0Defensive Efficiency108.4

-7.5Net Efficiency7.5

49.2%Effective FG%56.4%

52.8%True Shooting %60.6%

13.6%Turnover Rate12.0%

21.0%Free Throw Rate32.7%

53.2%3-Point Rate34.5%

1.44Assist / Turnover1.88

Game Summary

Dayton won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 66.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.