Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.3%Texas State

80.7%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.8

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -418

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 73

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricArkansas State

49.4MMH Power Index57.7

107.7Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.4Defensive Efficiency105.3

4.3Net Efficiency7.8

-4.7Strength of Schedule-1.0

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

68.6Tempo73.3

51.3%Effective FG%52.7%

18.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.0%Free Throw Rate39.6%

2.9Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.7), net efficiency (7.8–4.3), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–105.3), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Texas State

65—80

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 15 • 69.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATArkansas State

25-57FG29-58

44.0%FG%50.0%

3-153PT11-25

20.0%3PT%44.0%

12-13FT11-16

92.0%FT%69.0%

33Rebounds32

10Offensive Rebounds9

10Assists19

17Turnovers12

8Steals11

7Blocks3

15Fouls14

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joshua O'Garro	G	36	9-10	1-1	2-2	13	1	2	2	21
Tylan Pope	Forward	29	8-12	0-1	3-4	5	1	0	0	19
Coleton Benson	G	27	3-9	2-6	7-7	0	0	0	0	15
Christian Turner	Forward	31	3-5	0-0	0-0	4	1	2	2	6
Kaden Gumbs	G	29	2-12	0-1	0-0	2	6	3	1	4
Dylan Dawson	Guard	28	0-6	0-5	0-0	3	1	0	1	0
Austin Green	F	13	0-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	1	1	0
Bessanty Saragba	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Nate Deer	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Derrian Ford	G	28	5-11	4-7	5-6	1	2	0	0	19
Joseph Pinion	G	35	6-12	4-8	1-1	1	1	3	0	17
Taryn Todd	Guard	30	5-12	1-5	1-1	5	4	0	1	12
Kobe Julien	Forward	21	4-9	0-2	1-1	2	3	4	1	9
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	38	3-6	1-2	1-3	1	8	4	0	8
Izaiyah Nelson	F	23	3-4	0-0	0-0	6	1	0	0	6
Rashaud Marshall	F	17	2-3	0-0	2-4	12	0	0	1	6
Avery Felts	Guard	8	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

69.4Possessions69.4

93.7Offensive Efficiency115.3

115.3Defensive Efficiency93.7

-21.6Net Efficiency21.6

46.5%Effective FG%59.5%

51.4%True Shooting %61.0%

24.2%Turnover Rate17.5%

22.8%Free Throw Rate27.6%

26.3%3-Point Rate43.1%

0.59Assist / Turnover1.58

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 15 points. The game played at approximately 69.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.