Ball State

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

69.8%Ball State

30.2%Northern Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBall State -4.2

PROJECTED TOTAL142.2

MODEL MONEYLINEBall State -231

Northern Illinois

9-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBall State 73

Projected Total142.2

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 69

Team Comparison

Ball StateMetricNorthern Illinois

41.3MMH Power Index29.2

101.7Offensive Efficiency99.7

104.7Defensive Efficiency111.6

-3.0Net Efficiency-11.9

-3.9Strength of Schedule-2.1

-0.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-28.8

66.4Tempo69.7

48.3%Effective FG%48.5%

16.0%Turnover Rate21.3%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %31.7%

33.0%Free Throw Rate39.6%

-2.0Average Margin-8.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Ball State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY69.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBall State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (41.3–29.2), offensive efficiency (101.7–99.7), defensive efficiency (104.7–111.6), net efficiency (-3.0–-11.9).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-2.1–-3.9), shooting efficiency (48.5–48.3), offensive rebounding (31.7–26.5).

Final

Ball State

66—76

Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois by 10 • 67.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Ball StateTEAM STATNorthern Illinois

22-57FG24-55

39.0%FG%44.0%

9-253PT13-27

36.0%3PT%48.0%

13-28FT15-26

46.0%FT%58.0%

36Rebounds41

7Offensive Rebounds7

18Assists15

4Turnovers7

4Steals3

2Blocks1

20Fouls21

Player Box Score

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	33	6-8	4-6	0-0	2	5	1	0	16
Juanse Gorosito	G	34	4-10	4-10	0-0	1	3	1	0	12
Fatt Hill	G	33	4-7	1-3	3-10	7	3	2	0	12
Payton Sparks	Center	19	3-7	0-0	5-10	3	2	0	0	11
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	34	4-13	0-4	2-4	8	1	0	1	10
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	17	0-6	0-2	2-2	2	1	0	0	2
Joey Hart	G	16	1-3	0-0	0-0	3	2	0	1	2
Ben Hendriks	Center	7	0-1	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Mason Jones	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
TJ Burch	G	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nas Muhammad	G	37	6-11	5-6	2-2	6	4	2	0	19
James Dent Jr.	G	39	5-13	3-10	5-5	10	2	0	0	18
Quaran McPherson	G	36	5-10	3-4	5-15	10	0	0	0	18
Quentin Jones	G	40	4-12	1-3	2-2	5	6	1	1	11
Tsvet Sotirov	F	20	1-3	1-3	1-2	2	3	0	0	4
Jayden Mott	F	13	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Kailon Nicholls	G	9	1-3	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Steven Tipton	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.4Possessions67.4

97.9Offensive Efficiency112.8

112.8Defensive Efficiency97.9

-14.8Net Efficiency14.8

46.5%Effective FG%55.5%

46.9%True Shooting %56.4%

5.9%Turnover Rate10.4%

49.1%Free Throw Rate47.3%

43.9%3-Point Rate49.1%

4.50Assist / Turnover2.14

Game Summary

Northern Illinois won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 67.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.