American University

16-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

61.0%American University

39.0%Lafayette

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAmerican University -2.9

PROJECTED TOTAL145.8

MODEL MONEYLINEAmerican University -156

Lafayette

11-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAmerican University 74

Projected Total145.8

Projected ScoreLafayette 71

Team Comparison

American UniversityMetricLafayette

48.2MMH Power Index39.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency102.9

105.8Defensive Efficiency110.3

4.8Net Efficiency-7.4

-4.3Strength of Schedule-1.4

2.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.4

67.5Tempo67.5

52.6%Effective FG%49.4%

15.7%Turnover Rate15.4%

28.0%Offensive Rebound %25.7%

30.1%Free Throw Rate33.0%

3.3Average Margin-5.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

American University HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY61.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAmerican University holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.2–39.6), offensive efficiency (110.6–102.9), defensive efficiency (105.8–110.3), net efficiency (4.8–-7.4).

Lafayette COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-4.3), ball security (15.4–15.7), free throw rate (33.0–30.1).

Final

American University

75—68

Lafayette

American University by 7 • 63.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

American UniversityTEAM STATLafayette

24-59FG27-60

41.0%FG%45.0%

11-283PT8-21

39.0%3PT%38.0%

16-17FT6-12

94.0%FT%50.0%

32Rebounds38

8Offensive Rebounds11

14Assists18

6Turnovers8

5Steals5

—Blocks3

14Fouls15

Player Box Score

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Matt Rogers	Forward	26	7-10	3-5	4-4	8	2	0	21
Greg Jones	F	32	4-8	3-4	6-6	3	1	0	17
Colin Smalls	Guard	24	6-11	1-4	1-1	1	2	1	14
Lincoln Ball	Guard	23	4-9	3-7	1-2	5	4	0	12
Elijah Stephens	Guard	34	1-11	0-2	4-4	5	4	4	6
Matt Mayock	F	27	2-5	1-4	0-0	2	1	0	5
Eric Michaels	F	13	0-2	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0
Wyatt Nausadis	G	11	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0
Julen Iturbe	F	7	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0
Adrian Samuels	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0
Mason Whittaker	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Lafayette

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Justin Vander Baan	C	32	7-15	0-2	3-6	8	3	0	2	17
Alex Chaikin	G	31	6-11	3-8	0-0	2	1	1	0	15
Caleb Williams	G	24	4-11	2-4	0-0	2	2	2	0	10
Mark Butler	G	37	2-5	0-0	2-2	7	5	0	0	6
Andrew Phillips	G	32	2-8	2-4	0-0	3	2	0	1	6
Luka Savicevic	G	21	2-3	0-1	1-2	3	3	0	0	5
Ryan Pettit	G	15	2-4	1-2	0-0	2	2	1	0	5
Misha Bednostin	C	7	2-2	0-0	0-2	6	0	1	0	4
Malik Rasul	F	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.9Possessions63.9

117.4Offensive Efficiency106.4

106.4Defensive Efficiency117.4

11.0Net Efficiency-11.0

50.0%Effective FG%51.7%

55.9%True Shooting %51.8%

9.2%Turnover Rate12.8%

28.8%Free Throw Rate20.0%

47.5%3-Point Rate35.0%

2.33Assist / Turnover2.25

Game Summary

American University won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 63.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.