Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.9%Arkansas State

41.1%Southern Miss

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -1.7

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -143

Southern Miss

19-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSouthern Miss

57.7MMH Power Index49.9

113.1Offensive Efficiency106.1

105.3Defensive Efficiency104.9

7.8Net Efficiency1.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule-0.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency3.8

73.3Tempo70.4

52.7%Effective FG%49.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate43.9%

5.8Average Margin0.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.9), offensive efficiency (113.1–106.1), net efficiency (7.8–1.2), recent form (15.2–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–105.3), strength of schedule (-0.2–-1.0), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

81—68

Southern Miss

Arkansas State by 13 • 71.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSouthern Miss

28-64FG23-56

44.0%FG%41.0%

6-193PT6-17

32.0%3PT%35.0%

19-25FT16-23

76.0%FT%70.0%

44Rebounds34

14Offensive Rebounds9

8Assists11

10Turnovers14

9Steals7

4Blocks4

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	36	10-22	1-6	4-6	3	3	3	1	25
Joseph Pinion	G	32	3-8	3-6	4-4	9	1	3	0	13
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	40	3-7	1-3	4-4	4	2	0	0	11
Izaiyah Nelson	F	20	5-10	0-0	0-0	8	0	0	1	10
Rashaud Marshall	F	19	3-5	0-0	4-6	9	0	0	0	10
Derrian Ford	G	16	2-3	1-1	1-1	2	0	1	0	6
Kobe Julien	Forward	32	1-8	0-3	2-4	6	1	2	2	4
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Avery Felts	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DeAntoni Gordon	Forward	33	10-12	0-1	2-4	10	2	2	1	22
Denijay Harris	Forward	34	1-9	1-3	13-14	11	1	2	1	16
Christian Watson	G	30	4-11	2-6	0-2	1	3	1	1	10
Neftali Alvarez	Guard	26	4-7	1-1	0-1	0	2	0	1	9
John Wade III	Guard	9	2-3	1-2	0-0	1	0	1	0	5
Andre Curbelo	Guard	25	1-9	0-0	1-2	7	2	1	0	3
Cobie Montgomery	Guard	22	1-2	1-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	3
Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	13	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Christian Reid	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Brewer Carruth	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jett Montgomery	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.9Possessions71.9

112.7Offensive Efficiency94.6

94.6Defensive Efficiency112.7

18.1Net Efficiency-18.1

48.4%Effective FG%46.4%

53.4%True Shooting %50.8%

13.9%Turnover Rate19.5%

39.1%Free Throw Rate41.1%

29.7%3-Point Rate30.4%

0.80Assist / Turnover0.79

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 71.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.