Belmont

26-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.1%Belmont

41.9%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBelmont -1.0

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEBelmont -139

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBelmont 77

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreIllinois State 76

Team Comparison

BelmontMetricIllinois State

61.8MMH Power Index54.3

118.6Offensive Efficiency110.6

103.7Defensive Efficiency101.4

14.9Net Efficiency9.2

-0.2Strength of Schedule1.0

10.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

70.7Tempo67.5

60.7%Effective FG%54.3%

17.8%Turnover Rate16.8%

28.8%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

32.7%Free Throw Rate32.0%

10.5Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Belmont HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBelmont holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.8–54.3), offensive efficiency (118.6–110.6), net efficiency (14.9–9.2), recent form (10.0–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–103.7), strength of schedule (1.0–-0.2), ball security (16.8–17.8).

Final

Belmont

78—81

Illinois State

Illinois State by 3 • 68.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

BelmontTEAM STATIllinois State

28-64FG33-64

44.0%FG%52.0%

12-273PT10-31

44.0%3PT%32.0%

10-13FT5-14

77.0%FT%36.0%

40Rebounds35

12Offensive Rebounds8

17Assists15

11Turnovers4

2Steals5

3Blocks2

14Fouls16

Player Box Score

Belmont

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jonathan Pierre	Forward	32	9-18	5-11	4-4	4	3	0	1	27
Sam Orme	F	23	7-11	4-6	2-3	5	2	0	1	20
Isaiah Walker	G	38	4-7	0-1	2-3	9	2	0	0	10
Carter Whitt	Guard	29	3-12	0-1	0-0	5	7	2	0	6
Brody Peebles	Guard	16	2-7	2-5	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Brigham Rogers	F	20	2-5	0-0	0-1	3	1	0	1	4
Aidan Noyes	F	22	1-3	1-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Tyler Lundblade	G	20	0-1	0-1	2-2	4	2	0	0	2

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	38	8-15	5-11	1-2	2	3	1	0	22
Chase Walker	F	25	9-12	0-1	4-9	6	3	0	1	22
Landon Wolf	G	26	5-11	1-6	0-0	5	0	2	0	11
Jack Daugherty	F	15	3-6	1-3	0-0	4	0	0	0	7
Jordan Davis	Guard	23	2-2	2-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	6
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	9	2-3	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	1	5
Cameron Barnes	F	8	2-3	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Dalton Banks	Guard	33	1-8	0-3	0-3	2	6	2	0	2
Ty Pence	G	17	1-3	0-2	0-0	2	2	0	0	2
Caden Boser	Forward	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.0Possessions68.0

114.7Offensive Efficiency119.1

119.1Defensive Efficiency114.7

-4.4Net Efficiency4.4

53.1%Effective FG%59.4%

55.6%True Shooting %57.3%

15.9%Turnover Rate6.0%

20.3%Free Throw Rate21.9%

42.2%3-Point Rate48.4%

1.55Assist / Turnover3.75

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 68.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.