Northern Illinois

9-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

2.2%Northern Illinois

97.8%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -23.9

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -4445

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 66

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreToledo 89

Team Comparison

Northern IllinoisMetricToledo

29.2MMH Power Index58.8

99.7Offensive Efficiency116.0

111.6Defensive Efficiency109.6

-11.9Net Efficiency6.4

-2.1Strength of Schedule2.3

-28.8Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

69.7Tempo69.8

48.5%Effective FG%55.1%

21.3%Turnover Rate14.6%

31.7%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

39.6%Free Throw Rate30.3%

-8.3Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY97.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–29.2), offensive efficiency (116.0–99.7), defensive efficiency (109.6–111.6), net efficiency (6.4–-11.9).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHoffensive rebounding (31.7–30.4), free throw rate (39.6–30.3).

Final

Northern Illinois

85—89

Toledo

Toledo by 4 • 75.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern IllinoisTEAM STATToledo

33-69FG26-65

48.0%FG%40.0%

12-313PT4-13

39.0%3PT%31.0%

7-13FT33-38

54.0%FT%87.0%

33Rebounds49

5Offensive Rebounds14

16Assists14

5Turnovers6

4Steals3

7Blocks3

25Fouls13

Player Box Score

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nas Muhammad	G	33	7-13	6-8	1-2	3	5	1	0	21
Quaran McPherson	G	30	7-15	2-8	4-7	7	1	1	0	20
Quentin Jones	G	35	8-15	1-3	1-3	4	4	1	3	18
James Dent Jr.	G	36	6-13	2-7	1-1	6	2	0	3	15
Ethan Butler	F	31	3-7	0-1	0-0	6	1	0	1	6
Kailon Nicholls	G	21	2-5	1-3	0-0	4	2	0	0	5
Tsvet Sotirov	F	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Jayden Mott	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sam Lewis	G	35	7-16	3-6	6-6	7	0	1	1	23
Sonny Wilson	G	31	6-11	0-0	7-8	6	3	0	0	19
Bryce Ford	G	32	4-5	0-0	6-6	6	0	0	0	14
Javan Simmons	F	32	3-8	0-0	7-8	12	3	1	0	13
Isaiah Adams	Guard	33	2-11	1-5	5-6	8	7	0	1	10
Seth Hubbard	G	19	3-9	0-2	2-2	1	0	1	0	8
Grgur Brcic	C	7	1-1	0-0	0-2	3	0	0	0	2
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	8	0-3	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	1	0
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

75.2Possessions75.2

113.0Offensive Efficiency118.4

118.4Defensive Efficiency113.0

-5.3Net Efficiency5.3

56.5%Effective FG%43.1%

56.5%True Shooting %53.6%

6.7%Turnover Rate8.0%

18.8%Free Throw Rate58.5%

44.9%3-Point Rate20.0%

3.20Assist / Turnover2.33

Game Summary

Toledo won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 75.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.