Valparaiso

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.9%Valparaiso

73.1%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -8.4

PROJECTED TOTAL143.6

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -272

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreValparaiso 68

Projected Total143.6

Projected ScoreIllinois State 76

Team Comparison

ValparaisoMetricIllinois State

49.9MMH Power Index54.3

106.6Offensive Efficiency110.6

105.8Defensive Efficiency101.4

0.8Net Efficiency9.2

0.3Strength of Schedule1.0

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

67.5Tempo67.5

48.7%Effective FG%54.3%

15.6%Turnover Rate16.8%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

40.0%Free Throw Rate32.0%

0.5Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.6–106.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–105.8), net efficiency (9.2–0.8).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-0.1–-4.4), ball security (15.6–16.8), offensive rebounding (32.4–28.3).

Final

Valparaiso

78—86

Illinois State

Illinois State by 8 • 63.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ValparaisoTEAM STATIllinois State

28-58FG33-58

48.0%FG%57.0%

10-273PT11-27

37.0%3PT%41.0%

12-13FT9-12

92.0%FT%75.0%

32Rebounds27

10Offensive Rebounds6

9Assists22

9Turnovers5

3Steals6

1Blocks2

15Fouls15

Player Box Score

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
All Wright	G	30	7-17	2-6	4-4	0	2	0	0	20
Cooper Schwieger	F	38	6-12	0-3	2-2	7	0	0	1	14
Isaiah Shaw	G	20	3-4	1-2	3-3	1	2	0	0	10
Kaspar Sepp	F	20	4-5	1-2	0-0	3	2	0	0	9
Carson Schwieger	F	20	3-7	3-6	0-1	10	0	0	0	9
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	29	2-4	2-4	2-2	2	2	3	0	8
Tyler Schmidt	G	20	3-3	1-1	1-1	3	0	0	0	8
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	G	15	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Justus McNair	G	6	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Devon Ellis	F	2	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	31	9-11	1-1	5-8	4	7	1	0	24
Dalton Banks	Guard	35	7-9	1-2	2-2	3	3	2	0	17
Johnny Kinziger	G	38	5-10	3-7	2-2	5	6	0	1	15
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	23	4-7	3-5	0-0	0	0	0	0	11
Ty Pence	G	19	3-6	1-2	0-0	5	1	1	0	7
Jordan Davis	Guard	25	2-6	0-4	0-0	5	4	1	1	4
Landon Wolf	G	16	1-3	1-3	0-0	2	1	1	0	3
Jack Daugherty	F	5	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Cameron Barnes	F	3	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Caden Boser	Forward	5	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.0Possessions63.0

123.8Offensive Efficiency136.5

136.5Defensive Efficiency123.8

-12.7Net Efficiency12.7

56.9%Effective FG%66.4%

60.8%True Shooting %67.5%

14.2%Turnover Rate8.0%

22.4%Free Throw Rate20.7%

46.6%3-Point Rate46.6%

1.00Assist / Turnover4.40

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 63.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.