Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

60.2%Arkansas State

39.8%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -1.6

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -151

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreTexas State 77

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricTexas State

57.7MMH Power Index49.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.4

7.8Net Efficiency4.3

-1.0Strength of Schedule-4.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

73.3Tempo68.6

52.7%Effective FG%51.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.0%

5.8Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.7), net efficiency (7.8–4.3), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–105.3), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

85—74

Texas State

Arkansas State by 11 • 68.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATTexas State

31-54FG27-61

57.0%FG%44.0%

8-133PT8-18

62.0%3PT%44.0%

15-20FT12-15

75.0%FT%80.0%

37Rebounds25

10Offensive Rebounds9

11Assists23

15Turnovers9

5Steals8

4Blocks2

17Fouls16

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Izaiyah Nelson	F	35	10-10	0-0	3-5	11	0	2	0	23
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	38	6-12	2-4	6-7	3	5	1	0	20
Kobe Julien	Forward	36	6-13	3-5	4-6	10	0	2	3	19
Joseph Pinion	G	33	3-7	2-3	0-0	4	4	0	0	8
Derrian Ford	G	29	3-5	0-0	2-2	1	2	0	0	8
Taryn Todd	Guard	15	2-6	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	5
Rashaud Marshall	F	12	1-1	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	1	2
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Zane Butler	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylan Pope	Forward	25	5-13	0-0	7-8	5	0	1	0	17
Dylan Dawson	Guard	36	5-11	4-8	1-1	4	6	0	0	15
Kaden Gumbs	G	34	4-9	1-1	3-3	3	4	3	2	12
Christian Turner	Forward	21	5-7	0-1	0-1	2	2	3	0	10
Joshua O'Garro	G	34	3-9	1-3	1-2	3	6	1	0	8
Austin Green	F	13	3-5	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Coleton Benson	G	18	1-5	1-4	0-0	1	2	0	0	3
Drue Drinnon	Guard	14	1-2	1-1	0-0	1	2	0	0	3
Bessanty Saragba	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.3Possessions68.3

124.5Offensive Efficiency108.3

108.3Defensive Efficiency124.5

16.1Net Efficiency-16.1

64.8%Effective FG%50.8%

66.9%True Shooting %54.3%

21.9%Turnover Rate13.2%

37.0%Free Throw Rate24.6%

24.1%3-Point Rate29.5%

0.73Assist / Turnover2.56

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 68.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.