Ball State

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.1%Ball State

80.9%Buffalo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBuffalo -9.6

PROJECTED TOTAL146.5

MODEL MONEYLINEBuffalo -424

Buffalo

17-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBall State 68

Projected Total146.5

Projected ScoreBuffalo 78

Team Comparison

Ball StateMetricBuffalo

41.3MMH Power Index49.7

101.7Offensive Efficiency114.9

104.7Defensive Efficiency112.2

-3.0Net Efficiency2.7

-3.9Strength of Schedule0.0

-0.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.9

66.4Tempo67.9

48.3%Effective FG%56.1%

16.0%Turnover Rate16.1%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %27.6%

33.0%Free Throw Rate40.4%

-2.0Average Margin1.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Buffalo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBuffalo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.7–41.3), offensive efficiency (114.9–101.7), net efficiency (2.7–-3.0), strength of schedule (0.0–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–112.2), recent form (-0.9–-5.9), ball security (16.0–16.1).

Final

Ball State

89—76

Buffalo

Ball State by 13 • 71.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Ball StateTEAM STATBuffalo

29-63FG25-65

46.0%FG%38.0%

6-173PT8-39

35.0%3PT%21.0%

25-35FT18-19

71.0%FT%95.0%

45Rebounds37

17Offensive Rebounds13

16Assists18

9Turnovers10

4Steals5

2Blocks5

18Fouls22

Player Box Score

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Payton Sparks	Center	28	10-19	0-0	7-13	14	1	0	1	27
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	35	6-9	3-4	4-4	7	1	0	1	19
Fatt Hill	G	30	6-15	1-3	5-5	5	3	2	0	18
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	35	2-8	1-6	5-6	4	4	1	0	10
Joey Hart	G	8	2-4	1-1	3-3	1	0	0	0	8
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	17	2-2	0-0	0-2	2	4	0	0	4
Ben Hendriks	Center	7	1-1	0-0	1-2	1	1	0	0	3
Juanse Gorosito	G	34	0-4	0-3	0-0	3	2	1	0	0
Mason Jones	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Anquan Boldin Jr	G	36	7-11	0-4	2-2	5	2	3	2	16
Bryson Wilson	G	25	5-10	2-5	4-5	4	1	0	1	16
Ryan Sabol	G	37	5-13	2-10	0-0	6	5	1	0	12
Tyson Dunn	G	33	4-14	2-9	1-1	2	6	0	0	11
Ben Michaels	F	19	3-8	1-4	4-4	6	2	1	0	11
Noah Batchelor	G	32	1-6	1-5	1-1	7	0	0	2	4
Kavon Bradford	G	7	0-0	0-0	4-4	4	1	0	0	4
Tim Oboh	C	8	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	1	0	0	2
Omar Migues-Hibeljic	G	2	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Frederiks Meinarts	Center	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.3Possessions71.3

124.8Offensive Efficiency106.6

106.6Defensive Efficiency124.8

18.2Net Efficiency-18.2

50.8%Effective FG%44.6%

55.9%True Shooting %51.3%

12.6%Turnover Rate14.1%

55.6%Free Throw Rate29.2%

27.0%3-Point Rate60.0%

1.78Assist / Turnover1.80

Game Summary

Ball State won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 71.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.