Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

53.1%Arkansas State

46.9%Marshall

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMarshall -0.1

PROJECTED TOTAL164.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -113

Marshall

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Projected Total164.0

Projected ScoreMarshall 82

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricMarshall

57.7MMH Power Index52

113.1Offensive Efficiency114.7

105.3Defensive Efficiency110.3

7.8Net Efficiency4.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule0.9

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.9

73.3Tempo70.7

52.7%Effective FG%55.2%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.5%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

39.6%Free Throw Rate29.7%

5.8Average Margin3.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.0), defensive efficiency (105.3–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–4.4), recent form (15.2–-4.9).

Marshall COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (114.7–113.1), strength of schedule (0.9–-1.0), shooting efficiency (55.2–52.7).

Final

Arkansas State

72—77

Marshall

Marshall by 5 • 71.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATMarshall

23-59FG29-65

39.0%FG%45.0%

10-243PT7-23

42.0%3PT%30.0%

16-23FT12-17

70.0%FT%71.0%

35Rebounds42

10Offensive Rebounds15

11Assists15

12Turnovers12

7Steals3

5Blocks7

13Fouls16

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joseph Pinion	G	31	7-13	4-9	3-4	3	0	0	0	21
Kobe Julien	Forward	38	5-15	3-6	2-3	10	1	3	2	15
Taryn Todd	Guard	34	3-11	1-3	6-9	4	2	2	2	13
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	37	3-8	2-3	1-2	1	8	1	0	9
Izaiyah Nelson	F	22	3-5	0-2	3-3	5	0	1	1	9
Rashaud Marshall	F	22	2-4	0-0	1-2	6	0	0	0	5
Derrian Ford	G	12	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Avery Felts	Guard	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Marshall

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nate Martin	Forward	33	8-11	0-0	2-3	14	2	0	0	18
Mikal Dawson	Guard	38	5-19	2-9	3-4	6	1	0	0	15
Dezayne Mingo	G	38	4-9	0-3	6-8	5	10	1	0	14
Wyatt Fricks	F	12	4-6	3-5	1-2	3	0	2	2	12
Obinna Anochili-Killen	Forward	23	5-8	1-1	0-0	2	0	0	4	11
Jalen Speer	G	39	3-12	1-5	0-0	5	2	0	0	7
Cade Gibbs	Forward	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Jakob Gibbs	Forward	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Kai Spears	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.0Possessions71.0

101.4Offensive Efficiency108.5

108.5Defensive Efficiency101.4

-7.0Net Efficiency7.0

47.5%Effective FG%50.0%

51.5%True Shooting %52.7%

16.7%Turnover Rate17.1%

39.0%Free Throw Rate26.2%

40.7%3-Point Rate35.4%

0.92Assist / Turnover1.25

Game Summary

Marshall won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 71.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.