James Madison

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.6%James Madison

77.4%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -8.8

PROJECTED TOTAL155.6

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -342

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreJames Madison 73

Projected Total155.6

Projected ScoreToledo 82

Team Comparison

James MadisonMetricToledo

52.3MMH Power Index58.8

110.5Offensive Efficiency116.0

109.4Defensive Efficiency109.6

1.1Net Efficiency6.4

1.2Strength of Schedule2.3

7.9Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

67.5Tempo69.8

53.3%Effective FG%55.1%

17.3%Turnover Rate14.6%

30.5%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

36.6%Free Throw Rate30.3%

0.7Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–52.3), offensive efficiency (116.0–110.5), net efficiency (6.4–1.1), strength of schedule (2.3–1.2).

James Madison COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (109.4–109.6), offensive rebounding (30.5–30.4), free throw rate (36.6–30.3).

Final

James Madison

69—72

Toledo

Toledo by 3 • 59.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

James MadisonTEAM STATToledo

27-53FG29-63

51.0%FG%46.0%

13-243PT5-12

54.0%3PT%42.0%

2-5FT9-14

40.0%FT%64.0%

28Rebounds38

4Offensive Rebounds14

14Assists10

9Turnovers3

2Steals2

4Blocks1

16Fouls10

Player Box Score

James Madison

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Freeman	Guard	30	8-18	5-7	2-2	1	4	0	0	23
Bryce Lindsay	G	31	4-10	4-7	0-0	3	5	1	0	12
Xavier Brown	G	27	4-8	3-6	0-0	1	1	1	0	11
Eddie Ricks III	F	25	4-6	0-1	0-0	4	2	0	1	8
Ebenezer Dowuona	Forward	21	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	2	4
Elijah Hutchins-Everett	Center	18	2-2	0-0	0-2	2	1	0	0	4
AJ Smith	F	27	1-2	1-2	0-0	8	1	0	0	3
Will Lovings-Watts	Guard	12	1-2	0-1	0-1	2	0	0	0	2
Noah Williams	Guard	9	1-3	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	2

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sam Lewis	G	34	10-14	2-3	0-0	5	1	0	0	22
Sonny Wilson	G	37	7-15	2-2	0-0	5	3	0	0	16
Isaiah Adams	Guard	34	4-12	0-1	3-4	7	2	0	0	11
Bryce Ford	G	23	3-8	1-3	2-2	1	1	0	0	9
Javan Simmons	F	30	2-2	0-0	3-6	8	2	1	0	7
Seth Hubbard	G	19	2-9	0-2	1-2	3	0	1	1	5
Grgur Brcic	C	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

59.6Possessions59.6

115.8Offensive Efficiency120.8

120.8Defensive Efficiency115.8

-5.0Net Efficiency5.0

63.2%Effective FG%50.0%

62.3%True Shooting %51.7%

14.9%Turnover Rate5.1%

9.4%Free Throw Rate22.2%

45.3%3-Point Rate19.0%

1.56Assist / Turnover3.33

Game Summary

Toledo won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 59.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.