Murray State

20-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.6%Murray State

52.4%Valparaiso

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADValparaiso -1.2

PROJECTED TOTAL156.0

MODEL MONEYLINEValparaiso -110

Valparaiso

18-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMurray State 77

Projected Total156.0

Projected ScoreValparaiso 79

Team Comparison

Murray StateMetricValparaiso

53.6MMH Power Index49.9

115.0Offensive Efficiency106.6

111.0Defensive Efficiency105.8

4.0Net Efficiency0.8

3.5Strength of Schedule0.3

-9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

72.3Tempo67.5

54.0%Effective FG%48.7%

16.3%Turnover Rate15.6%

32.7%Offensive Rebound %32.4%

39.1%Free Throw Rate40.0%

2.9Average Margin0.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Murray State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMurray State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.6–49.9), offensive efficiency (115.0–106.6), net efficiency (4.0–0.8), strength of schedule (3.5–0.3).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.8–111.0), recent form (-0.1–-9.5), ball security (15.6–16.3).

Final

Murray State

74—56

Valparaiso

Murray State by 18 • 64.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Murray StateTEAM STATValparaiso

27-55FG21-60

49.0%FG%35.0%

8-223PT5-21

36.0%3PT%24.0%

12-13FT9-14

92.0%FT%64.0%

39Rebounds30

9Offensive Rebounds11

14Assists7

11Turnovers10

4Steals4

2Blocks2

15Fouls14

Player Box Score

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
JaCobi Wood	Guard	40	5-13	4-9	3-4	3	4	1	0	17
AJ Ferguson	Guard	32	7-12	3-6	0-0	7	2	0	0	17
Nick Ellington	F	28	6-8	0-0	5-5	10	0	0	2	17
Kylen Milton	Guard	34	4-9	0-1	4-4	5	2	0	0	12
Terence Harcum	Guard	27	2-7	0-4	0-0	2	4	0	0	4
Alden Applewhite	F	13	1-2	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Justin Morgan	Guard	14	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	2	1	0	2
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin	F	12	1-3	0-0	0-0	0	0	2	0	2

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	G	34	8-13	4-5	2-2	3	1	1	0	22
Cooper Schwieger	F	35	6-12	0-1	4-6	10	0	2	1	16
All Wright	G	34	3-16	0-7	1-2	4	2	0	0	7
Carson Schwieger	F	19	1-2	1-2	2-4	2	0	0	0	5
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	26	1-5	0-3	0-0	3	3	1	0	2
Tyler Schmidt	G	24	1-7	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Justus McNair	G	6	1-3	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Kaspar Sepp	F	20	0-1	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	0
Devon Ellis	F	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Shaw	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.5Possessions64.5

114.7Offensive Efficiency86.8

86.8Defensive Efficiency114.7

27.9Net Efficiency-27.9

56.4%Effective FG%39.2%

60.5%True Shooting %42.0%

17.4%Turnover Rate15.2%

23.6%Free Throw Rate23.3%

40.0%3-Point Rate35.0%

1.27Assist / Turnover0.70

Game Summary

Murray State won by 18 points. The game played at approximately 64.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.