Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

52.3%Texas State

47.7%Central Michigan

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -0.7

PROJECTED TOTAL149.0

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -110

Central Michigan

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 75

Projected Total149.0

Projected ScoreCentral Michigan 74

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricCentral Michigan

49.4MMH Power Index44

107.7Offensive Efficiency105.9

103.4Defensive Efficiency111.0

4.3Net Efficiency-5.1

-4.7Strength of Schedule-0.5

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency1.3

68.6Tempo69.3

51.3%Effective FG%52.6%

18.4%Turnover Rate18.3%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %29.6%

36.0%Free Throw Rate32.9%

2.9Average Margin-3.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.4–44.0), offensive efficiency (107.7–105.9), defensive efficiency (103.4–111.0), net efficiency (4.3–-5.1).

Central Michigan COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-0.5–-4.7), shooting efficiency (52.6–51.3), ball security (18.3–18.4).

Final

Texas State

70—85

Central Michigan

Central Michigan by 15 • 70.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATCentral Michigan

29-55FG27-47

53.0%FG%57.0%

7-203PT5-10

35.0%3PT%50.0%

5-11FT26-35

45.0%FT%74.0%

25Rebounds28

7Offensive Rebounds7

13Assists14

18Turnovers13

4Steals8

2Blocks2

28Fouls15

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylan Pope	Forward	20	6-7	0-0	1-2	4	0	0	0	13
Kaden Gumbs	G	35	6-9	0-2	0-0	2	6	0	0	12
Coleton Benson	G	15	4-9	3-8	0-0	2	1	0	0	11
Joshua O'Garro	G	28	3-5	1-1	2-3	5	0	2	1	9
Christian Turner	Forward	38	3-6	0-0	1-5	6	3	1	0	7
Drue Drinnon	Guard	16	3-6	1-4	0-0	1	0	1	0	7
Dylan Dawson	Guard	26	2-9	2-5	0-0	1	3	0	0	6
Nate Deer	F	10	2-2	0-0	1-1	2	0	0	0	5
Bessanty Saragba	F	12	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Central Michigan

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jakobi Heady	G	34	8-12	0-2	4-8	4	0	2	0	20
Ugnius Jarusevicius	F	33	5-9	1-1	8-11	14	0	2	0	19
Anthony Pritchard	Guard	39	6-11	0-0	5-6	3	11	3	0	17
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	37	5-7	3-3	4-4	0	0	0	0	17
Quentin Heady	F	17	1-3	0-0	4-4	3	0	1	0	6
Cayden Vasko	G	24	1-2	1-2	1-2	2	3	0	0	4
Bryan Ndjonga	F	13	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	1	2
Shaedon Simpson	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.4Possessions70.4

99.4Offensive Efficiency120.7

120.7Defensive Efficiency99.4

-21.3Net Efficiency21.3

59.1%Effective FG%62.8%

58.1%True Shooting %66.8%

25.3%Turnover Rate18.7%

20.0%Free Throw Rate74.5%

36.4%3-Point Rate21.3%

0.72Assist / Turnover1.08

Game Summary

Central Michigan won by 15 points. The game played at approximately 70.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.