Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.2%Illinois State

77.8%Northern Iowa

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthern Iowa -8.0

PROJECTED TOTAL136.0

MODEL MONEYLINENorthern Iowa -350

Northern Iowa

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 64

Projected Total136.0

Projected ScoreNorthern Iowa 72

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricNorthern Iowa

54.3MMH Power Index61

110.6Offensive Efficiency108.4

101.4Defensive Efficiency96.4

9.2Net Efficiency12.0

1.0Strength of Schedule2.2

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency13.9

67.5Tempo64.1

54.3%Effective FG%54.6%

16.8%Turnover Rate14.4%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %21.9%

32.0%Free Throw Rate26.2%

6.2Average Margin7.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northern Iowa HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthern Iowa holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.0–54.3), defensive efficiency (96.4–101.4), net efficiency (12.0–9.2), strength of schedule (2.2–1.0).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (110.6–108.4), offensive rebounding (28.3–21.9), free throw rate (32.0–26.2).

Final

Illinois State

65—68

Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa by 3 • 66.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATNorthern Iowa

25-58FG28-56

43.0%FG%50.0%

11-273PT5-19

41.0%3PT%26.0%

4-5FT7-12

80.0%FT%58.0%

33Rebounds32

8Offensive Rebounds6

12Assists17

13Turnovers11

8Steals5

1Blocks1

15Fouls9

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	37	5-11	4-4	2-2	9	2	3	0	16
Caden Boser	Forward	13	4-8	2-5	0-0	1	2	1	0	10
Jordan Davis	Guard	31	3-8	2-6	0-0	4	0	1	0	8
Dalton Banks	Guard	24	3-5	2-2	0-0	2	4	0	0	8
Ty Pence	G	21	4-9	0-4	0-0	2	0	0	1	8
Chase Walker	F	27	2-7	0-1	2-3	4	3	3	0	6
Landon Wolf	G	25	3-7	0-2	0-0	5	1	0	0	6
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	19	1-2	1-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Jack Daugherty	F	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northern Iowa

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tytan Anderson	Guard	37	9-15	0-2	0-0	8	3	0	0	18
Trey Campbell	G	37	4-9	2-4	2-2	2	4	0	0	12
Jacob Hutson	Center	31	4-9	1-2	2-4	5	2	2	1	11
Will Hornseth	F	9	5-5	0-0	1-3	2	0	0	0	11
Ben Schwieger	F	34	4-9	1-4	0-1	9	3	0	0	9
Max Weisbrod	G	32	1-3	0-2	2-2	1	2	1	0	4
Cael Schmitt	Guard	15	1-5	1-4	0-0	0	2	2	0	3
Kyle Pock	F	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Redek Born	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.1Possessions66.1

98.3Offensive Efficiency102.9

102.9Defensive Efficiency98.3

-4.5Net Efficiency4.5

52.6%Effective FG%54.5%

53.8%True Shooting %55.1%

19.9%Turnover Rate16.5%

8.6%Free Throw Rate21.4%

46.6%3-Point Rate33.9%

0.92Assist / Turnover1.55

Game Summary

Northern Iowa won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 66.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.