Lafayette

11-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.7%Lafayette

81.3%American University

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAmerican University -11.1

PROJECTED TOTAL145.8

MODEL MONEYLINEAmerican University -435

American University

16-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreLafayette 67

Projected Total145.8

Projected ScoreAmerican University 78

Team Comparison

LafayetteMetricAmerican University

39.6MMH Power Index48.2

102.9Offensive Efficiency110.6

110.3Defensive Efficiency105.8

-7.4Net Efficiency4.8

-1.4Strength of Schedule-4.3

-6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency2.2

67.5Tempo67.5

49.4%Effective FG%52.6%

15.4%Turnover Rate15.7%

25.7%Offensive Rebound %28.0%

33.0%Free Throw Rate30.1%

-5.0Average Margin3.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

American University HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAmerican University holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.2–39.6), offensive efficiency (110.6–102.9), defensive efficiency (105.8–110.3), net efficiency (4.8–-7.4).

Lafayette COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-4.3), ball security (15.4–15.7), free throw rate (33.0–30.1).

Final

Lafayette

58—60

American University

American University by 2 • 60.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

LafayetteTEAM STATAmerican University

20-50FG23-51

40.0%FG%45.0%

8-253PT5-20

32.0%3PT%25.0%

10-18FT9-11

56.0%FT%82.0%

33Rebounds30

7Offensive Rebounds4

11Assists11

11Turnovers7

4Steals8

—Blocks—

14Fouls16

Player Box Score

Lafayette

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Andrew Phillips	G	35	6-10	4-6	1-2	5	2	0	17
Alex Chaikin	G	31	6-14	4-10	0-0	4	2	1	16
Mark Butler	G	38	1-4	0-1	6-8	7	1	0	8
Justin Vander Baan	C	35	4-9	0-0	0-2	8	5	1	8
Caleb Williams	G	33	1-7	0-5	1-2	4	0	1	3
Ryan Pettit	G	16	1-4	0-2	1-2	3	1	0	3
TJ Berger	G	5	1-2	0-1	1-2	2	0	0	3
Misha Bednostin	C	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0
Folabomi Fayemi	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Matt Rogers	Forward	26	9-12	1-3	0-1	10	0	1	19
Greg Jones	F	33	5-10	1-5	0-0	6	1	3	11
Elijah Stephens	Guard	31	4-9	1-3	2-2	2	2	1	11
Colin Smalls	Guard	31	2-6	1-3	4-4	1	1	1	9
Lincoln Ball	Guard	22	1-5	0-2	1-2	4	2	0	3
Geoff Sprouse	G	22	1-3	1-3	0-0	3	2	0	3
Matt Mayock	F	11	0-0	0-0	2-2	0	1	0	2
Eric Michaels	F	10	1-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	2
Wyatt Nausadis	G	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	2	0	0
Mason Whittaker	Forward	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

60.9Possessions60.9

95.2Offensive Efficiency98.5

98.5Defensive Efficiency95.2

-3.3Net Efficiency3.3

48.0%Effective FG%50.0%

49.5%True Shooting %53.4%

17.6%Turnover Rate11.8%

36.0%Free Throw Rate21.6%

50.0%3-Point Rate39.2%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.57

Game Summary

American University won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 60.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.