Southern Miss

19-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.1%Southern Miss

79.9%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.9

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -398

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreArkansas State 84

Team Comparison

Southern MissMetricArkansas State

49.9MMH Power Index57.7

106.1Offensive Efficiency113.1

104.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

1.2Net Efficiency7.8

-0.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

3.8Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.4Tempo73.3

49.9%Effective FG%52.7%

18.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

32.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

43.9%Free Throw Rate39.6%

0.9Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.9), offensive efficiency (113.1–106.1), net efficiency (7.8–1.2), recent form (15.2–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–105.3), strength of schedule (-0.2–-1.0), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Southern Miss

67—101

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 34 • 75.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Southern MissTEAM STATArkansas State

26-57FG37-76

46.0%FG%49.0%

5-203PT12-36

25.0%3PT%33.0%

10-15FT15-20

67.0%FT%75.0%

31Rebounds44

5Offensive Rebounds15

11Assists24

17Turnovers5

4Steals12

1Blocks2

13Fouls16

Player Box Score

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Andre Curbelo	Guard	18	6-11	1-2	3-4	3	2	0	0	16
Neftali Alvarez	Guard	34	6-13	1-3	2-3	5	3	0	0	15
Denijay Harris	Forward	31	5-9	1-4	0-0	4	4	0	0	11
Christian Watson	G	24	3-7	0-3	1-1	1	0	1	0	7
Cobie Montgomery	Guard	16	2-4	2-4	0-0	2	1	0	0	6
Trey Alfonso	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	3-4	2	0	0	0	3
DeAntoni Gordon	Forward	20	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	16	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
John Wade III	Guard	11	1-3	0-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
Jeffery Armstrong	Guard	9	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	1	2
Brewer Carruth	G	3	0-1	0-1	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Christian Reid	Guard	9	0-1	0-0	0-1	2	0	0	0	0
Jett Montgomery	G	6	0-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	1	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kobe Julien	Forward	22	8-13	4-5	0-0	3	1	3	0	20
Joseph Pinion	G	30	6-16	2-12	1-1	2	3	3	1	15
Derrian Ford	G	17	5-8	3-5	1-2	3	1	1	0	14
Rashaud Marshall	F	11	4-6	0-0	4-6	8	0	1	0	12
Izaiyah Nelson	F	21	5-7	0-1	0-0	8	0	0	1	10
Taryn Todd	Guard	20	2-4	0-1	6-7	6	6	2	0	10
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	33	4-9	1-4	0-0	6	11	2	0	9
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	16	1-4	1-4	0-0	2	1	0	0	3
Zane Butler	Guard	6	1-2	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Cody Head	G	3	0-1	0-0	3-4	1	1	0	0	3
Kameron Johnson	Forward	8	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Avery Felts	Guard	11	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jacob St. Clair	G	2	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

75.8Possessions75.8

88.4Offensive Efficiency133.2

133.2Defensive Efficiency88.4

-44.9Net Efficiency44.9

50.0%Effective FG%56.6%

52.2%True Shooting %59.1%

22.3%Turnover Rate6.6%

26.3%Free Throw Rate26.3%

35.1%3-Point Rate47.4%

0.65Assist / Turnover4.80

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 34 points. The game played at approximately 75.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.