Drake

14-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.0%Drake

80.0%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -10.4

PROJECTED TOTAL147.7

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -400

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDrake 69

Projected Total147.7

Projected ScoreIllinois State 79

Team Comparison

DrakeMetricIllinois State

46.4MMH Power Index54.3

109.5Offensive Efficiency110.6

109.1Defensive Efficiency101.4

0.4Net Efficiency9.2

0.3Strength of Schedule1.0

-11.3Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

68.6Tempo67.5

52.2%Effective FG%54.3%

14.9%Turnover Rate16.8%

27.2%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

34.4%Free Throw Rate32.0%

0.2Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–46.4), offensive efficiency (110.6–109.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–109.1), net efficiency (9.2–0.4).

Drake COUNTERS WITHball security (14.9–16.8), free throw rate (34.4–32.0).

Final

Drake

84—77

Illinois State

Drake by 7 • 65.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DrakeTEAM STATIllinois State

29-48FG26-45

60.0%FG%58.0%

9-183PT8-21

50.0%3PT%38.0%

17-21FT17-26

81.0%FT%65.0%

21Rebounds23

3Offensive Rebounds5

13Assists12

10Turnovers13

9Steals7

1Blocks1

22Fouls18

Player Box Score

Drake

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Bennett Stirtz	G	40	9-16	2-4	5-6	7	6	1	0	25
Mitch Mascari	Guard	40	6-11	5-10	1-2	0	1	1	0	18
Kael Combs	G	27	5-6	0-0	3-3	4	0	0	0	13
Daniel Abreu	Forward	35	1-3	1-2	4-4	4	1	3	1	7
Isaia Howard	G	14	3-4	1-2	0-1	1	1	0	0	7
Tavion Banks	G	11	3-5	0-0	1-1	3	0	0	0	7
Cam Manyawu	F	21	2-3	0-0	2-2	1	1	4	0	6
Isaiah Jackson	Guard	10	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	3	0	0	1
Nate Ferguson	Forward	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	33	10-15	0-1	5-8	7	0	2	0	25
Johnny Kinziger	G	27	5-7	2-4	10-12	2	2	2	0	22
Ty Pence	G	23	4-5	1-2	1-2	1	2	1	0	10
Jack Daugherty	F	23	3-4	3-4	0-2	1	0	1	0	9
Dalton Banks	Guard	24	3-5	1-2	0-0	1	2	0	0	7
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	25	1-3	1-3	0-0	2	3	0	0	3
Jordan Davis	Guard	24	0-5	0-5	1-2	4	1	1	0	1
Landon Wolf	G	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Caden Boser	Forward	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	1	0
Cade Norris	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.2Possessions65.2

128.8Offensive Efficiency118.1

118.1Defensive Efficiency128.8

10.7Net Efficiency-10.7

69.8%Effective FG%66.7%

72.4%True Shooting %67.1%

15.4%Turnover Rate19.9%

43.8%Free Throw Rate57.8%

37.5%3-Point Rate46.7%

1.30Assist / Turnover0.92

Game Summary

Drake won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 65.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.