Northern Illinois

9-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

13.5%Northern Illinois

86.5%Ball State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBall State -12.4

PROJECTED TOTAL142.2

MODEL MONEYLINEBall State -641

Ball State

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 65

Projected Total142.2

Projected ScoreBall State 77

Team Comparison

Northern IllinoisMetricBall State

29.2MMH Power Index41.3

99.7Offensive Efficiency101.7

111.6Defensive Efficiency104.7

-11.9Net Efficiency-3.0

-2.1Strength of Schedule-3.9

-28.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.9

69.7Tempo66.4

48.5%Effective FG%48.3%

21.3%Turnover Rate16.0%

31.7%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

39.6%Free Throw Rate33.0%

-8.3Average Margin-2.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Ball State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY86.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBall State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (41.3–29.2), offensive efficiency (101.7–99.7), defensive efficiency (104.7–111.6), net efficiency (-3.0–-11.9).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-2.1–-3.9), shooting efficiency (48.5–48.3), offensive rebounding (31.7–26.5).

Final

Northern Illinois

83—89

Ball State

Ball State by 6 • 79.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern IllinoisTEAM STATBall State

26-63FG23-54

41.0%FG%43.0%

13-363PT9-23

36.0%3PT%39.0%

18-21FT34-50

86.0%FT%68.0%

36Rebounds40

6Offensive Rebounds7

13Assists10

12Turnovers9

2Steals6

3Blocks3

31Fouls19

Player Box Score

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Quentin Jones	G	44	6-15	3-7	6-8	9	6	0	0	21
James Dent Jr.	G	42	5-12	3-5	7-7	2	3	0	1	20
Tsvet Sotirov	F	34	5-10	4-9	0-0	5	1	1	1	14
Joe Munden Jr.	Not Available	24	4-6	1-3	0-0	3	0	1	0	9
Steven Tipton	G	16	2-5	1-4	4-4	2	0	0	0	9
Nas Muhammad	G	24	1-7	1-5	1-2	5	2	0	0	4
Ethan Butler	F	10	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	4
Quaran McPherson	G	13	1-4	0-2	0-0	4	1	0	0	2
Kailon Nicholls	G	11	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jayden Mott	F	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Juanse Gorosito	G	39	7-10	5-8	5-8	7	1	2	0	24
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	26	2-11	1-4	10-11	5	0	0	0	15
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	28	5-7	2-2	2-2	5	2	0	1	14
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	37	4-10	1-5	4-6	6	4	1	0	13
Fatt Hill	G	35	3-9	0-1	6-10	3	2	2	0	12
Payton Sparks	Center	25	1-3	0-0	6-11	5	1	0	1	8
Ben Hendriks	Center	14	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	2
Mason Jones	F	12	0-1	0-1	1-2	2	0	1	0	1
Joey Hart	G	9	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.4Possessions79.4

104.5Offensive Efficiency112.1

112.1Defensive Efficiency104.5

-7.6Net Efficiency7.6

51.6%Effective FG%50.9%

56.9%True Shooting %57.2%

15.2%Turnover Rate11.3%

33.3%Free Throw Rate92.6%

57.1%3-Point Rate42.6%

1.08Assist / Turnover1.11

Game Summary

Ball State won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 79.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.