Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

32.5%Texas State

67.5%South Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSouth Alabama -5.4

PROJECTED TOTAL145.3

MODEL MONEYLINESouth Alabama -208

South Alabama

21-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 70

Projected Total145.3

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 75

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricSouth Alabama

49.4MMH Power Index51.4

107.7Offensive Efficiency110.3

103.4Defensive Efficiency103.9

4.3Net Efficiency6.4

-4.7Strength of Schedule-3.7

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

68.6Tempo67.4

51.3%Effective FG%53.2%

18.4%Turnover Rate12.8%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %24.9%

36.0%Free Throw Rate39.8%

2.9Average Margin4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

South Alabama HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY67.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSouth Alabama holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.3–107.7), net efficiency (6.4–4.3), strength of schedule (-3.7–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–103.9), recent form (9.1–3.4), offensive rebounding (34.3–24.9).

Final

Texas State

65—70

South Alabama

South Alabama by 5 • 67.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATSouth Alabama

22-66FG22-58

33.0%FG%38.0%

7-233PT5-22

30.0%3PT%23.0%

14-20FT21-28

70.0%FT%75.0%

50Rebounds35

25Offensive Rebounds13

8Assists12

17Turnovers9

8Steals11

5Blocks9

22Fouls17

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylan Pope	Forward	37	7-20	0-0	6-6	15	0	2	3	20
Joshua O'Garro	G	33	4-13	1-3	2-2	7	0	1	0	11
Dylan Dawson	Guard	34	3-9	3-7	1-2	3	2	2	0	10
Tyrel Morgan	Forward	40	3-10	2-5	1-2	11	2	0	2	9
Christian Turner	Forward	17	2-2	0-0	2-4	3	0	2	0	6
Mark Drone	G	29	1-8	0-5	2-4	0	3	1	0	4
Drue Drinnon	Guard	25	1-3	1-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	3
Nate Deer	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Austin Green	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Barry Dunning Jr.	G	42	11-23	5-9	7-8	11	3	1	0	34
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	32	3-10	0-2	9-10	4	2	0	3	15
Myles Corey	G	37	2-5	0-2	4-5	3	5	6	1	8
Dylan Fasoyiro	Guard	33	3-8	0-3	0-1	3	0	1	3	6
JJ Wheat	G	17	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	1	1	0	2
Judah Brown	Forward	12	1-4	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	1	2
Randy Brady	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Cantia Rahming	Forward	8	0-1	0-0	1-4	3	1	0	0	1
John Broom	G	36	0-3	0-2	0-0	6	0	2	1	0
Jayden Cooper	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.4Possessions67.4

96.4Offensive Efficiency103.9

103.9Defensive Efficiency96.4

-7.4Net Efficiency7.4

38.6%Effective FG%42.2%

43.0%True Shooting %49.1%

25.2%Turnover Rate13.4%

30.3%Free Throw Rate48.3%

34.8%3-Point Rate37.9%

0.47Assist / Turnover1.33

Game Summary

South Alabama won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 67.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.