Troy

22-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.7%Troy

71.3%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -6.1

PROJECTED TOTAL159.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -248

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTroy 77

Projected Total159.8

Projected ScoreArkansas State 83

Team Comparison

TroyMetricArkansas State

54.1MMH Power Index57.7

112.6Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

8.7Net Efficiency7.8

-2.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

2.0Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.4Tempo73.3

52.1%Effective FG%52.7%

17.1%Turnover Rate19.4%

35.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

6.1Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.2), recent form (15.2–2.0).

Troy COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), net efficiency (8.7–7.8), ball security (17.1–19.4).

Final

Troy

71—70

Arkansas State

Troy by 1 • 69.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

TroyTEAM STATArkansas State

22-57FG25-65

39.0%FG%38.0%

8-283PT8-26

29.0%3PT%31.0%

19-27FT12-18

70.0%FT%67.0%

35Rebounds43

12Offensive Rebounds18

11Assists10

11Turnovers14

11Steals6

7Blocks3

14Fouls18

Player Box Score

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jackson Fields	F	23	6-9	5-7	3-4	8	0	3	1	20
Tayton Conerway	G	35	5-13	1-6	2-2	4	4	2	0	13
Thomas Dowd	F	24	3-6	2-5	5-8	4	0	1	1	13
Myles Rigsby	G	36	3-8	0-3	3-4	8	2	2	1	9
Jerrell Bellamy	C	12	4-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	2	8
Victor Valdes	F	15	0-3	0-1	4-4	1	1	1	0	4
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	G	26	0-8	0-4	2-4	3	4	1	2	2
Cooper Campbell	G	11	1-3	0-1	0-1	0	0	0	0	2
Theo Seng	F	13	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Randarius Jones	C	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	40	6-14	4-7	2-2	4	5	2	0	18
Taryn Todd	Guard	34	6-17	2-5	0-2	7	3	1	0	14
Izaiyah Nelson	F	31	6-8	0-0	2-4	14	1	0	2	14
Joseph Pinion	G	25	3-10	1-4	0-0	3	1	2	0	7
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	10	1-2	1-2	3-4	1	0	1	0	6
Kobe Julien	Forward	28	1-7	0-4	3-4	8	0	0	0	5
Derrian Ford	G	18	1-5	0-4	2-2	3	0	0	0	4
Rashaud Marshall	F	9	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	2
Avery Felts	Guard	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.2Possessions69.2

102.6Offensive Efficiency101.2

101.2Defensive Efficiency102.6

1.4Net Efficiency-1.4

45.6%Effective FG%44.6%

50.8%True Shooting %47.6%

16.0%Turnover Rate20.1%

47.4%Free Throw Rate27.7%

49.1%3-Point Rate40.0%

1.00Assist / Turnover0.71

Game Summary

Troy won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 69.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.