Ball State

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

7.9%Ball State

92.1%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -15.6

PROJECTED TOTAL148.4

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -1166

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBall State 66

Projected Total148.4

Projected ScoreToledo 82

Team Comparison

Ball StateMetricToledo

41.3MMH Power Index58.8

101.7Offensive Efficiency116.0

104.7Defensive Efficiency109.6

-3.0Net Efficiency6.4

-3.9Strength of Schedule2.3

-0.9Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

66.4Tempo69.8

48.3%Effective FG%55.1%

16.0%Turnover Rate14.6%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

33.0%Free Throw Rate30.3%

-2.0Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY92.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–41.3), offensive efficiency (116.0–101.7), net efficiency (6.4–-3.0), strength of schedule (2.3–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–109.6), free throw rate (33.0–30.3).

Final

Ball State

66—67

Toledo

Toledo by 1 • 61.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Ball StateTEAM STATToledo

23-47FG28-62

49.0%FG%45.0%

5-153PT3-14

33.0%3PT%21.0%

15-17FT8-12

88.0%FT%67.0%

30Rebounds32

7Offensive Rebounds14

14Assists13

13Turnovers8

6Steals7

—Blocks3

14Fouls12

Player Box Score

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Fatt Hill	G	36	6-15	1-2	3-4	4	6	2	16
Payton Sparks	Center	29	6-8	0-0	4-5	9	1	1	16
Juanse Gorosito	G	20	4-6	3-5	2-2	0	1	1	13
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	35	2-5	1-4	4-4	3	3	0	9
Ben Hendriks	Center	9	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	4
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	21	1-5	0-2	0-0	4	0	0	2
Mason Jones	F	18	1-3	0-1	0-0	3	0	2	2
Joey Hart	G	15	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	2
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	15	0-0	0-0	2-2	0	1	0	2
Zane Doughty	C	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Adams	Guard	30	6-13	1-3	5-7	1	3	1	0	18
Sam Lewis	G	35	5-12	1-5	1-3	4	2	1	0	12
Sonny Wilson	G	35	6-11	0-0	0-0	5	3	2	0	12
Javan Simmons	F	31	4-9	0-0	1-1	9	2	1	2	9
Bryce Ford	G	25	3-6	1-2	0-0	6	2	0	1	7
Seth Hubbard	G	18	2-6	0-3	0-0	1	0	2	0	4
Grgur Brcic	C	9	1-1	0-0	1-1	0	1	0	0	3
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	10	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.4Possessions61.4

107.5Offensive Efficiency109.1

109.1Defensive Efficiency107.5

-1.6Net Efficiency1.6

54.3%Effective FG%47.6%

59.9%True Shooting %49.5%

21.3%Turnover Rate13.0%

36.2%Free Throw Rate19.4%

31.9%3-Point Rate22.6%

1.08Assist / Turnover1.63

Game Summary

Toledo won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 61.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.