Southern Illinois

16-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

40.2%Southern Illinois

59.8%Murray State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMurray State -3.3

PROJECTED TOTAL155.6

MODEL MONEYLINEMurray State -149

Murray State

20-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouthern Illinois 76

Projected Total155.6

Projected ScoreMurray State 79

Team Comparison

Southern IllinoisMetricMurray State

54.6MMH Power Index53.6

103.4Offensive Efficiency115.0

98.5Defensive Efficiency111.0

4.9Net Efficiency4.0

1.6Strength of Schedule3.5

7.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.5

70.6Tempo72.3

49.5%Effective FG%54.0%

17.0%Turnover Rate16.3%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %32.7%

32.3%Free Throw Rate39.1%

3.4Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Murray State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMurray State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (115.0–103.4), strength of schedule (3.5–1.6), shooting efficiency (54.0–49.5), ball security (16.3–17.0).

Southern Illinois COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (54.6–53.6), defensive efficiency (98.5–111.0), net efficiency (4.9–4.0).

Final

Southern Illinois

60—62

Murray State

Murray State by 2 • 64.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Southern IllinoisTEAM STATMurray State

24-52FG17-55

46.0%FG%31.0%

1-123PT5-23

8.0%3PT%22.0%

11-17FT23-25

65.0%FT%92.0%

37Rebounds33

9Offensive Rebounds10

8Assists7

13Turnovers7

3Steals10

3Blocks2

18Fouls15

Player Box Score

Southern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kennard Davis Jr.	F	40	11-19	1-5	3-4	10	1	0	1	26
Ali Dibba	G	37	6-12	0-2	1-1	5	1	0	0	13
Jarrett Hensley	Forward	23	3-10	0-3	2-6	11	0	0	1	8
Drew Steffe	G	37	2-4	0-2	3-4	2	0	1	1	7
Jorge Moreno	F	13	2-3	0-0	2-2	1	1	2	0	6
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	31	0-2	0-0	0-0	3	3	0	0	0
Sheridan Sharp	G	12	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Rolyns Aligbe	F	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Davion Sykes	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
JaCobi Wood	Guard	39	6-18	3-11	5-5	0	4	2	0	20
Terence Harcum	Guard	37	5-9	2-5	2-2	5	0	0	0	14
Nick Ellington	F	32	3-7	0-0	8-10	8	1	1	0	14
AJ Ferguson	Guard	31	2-6	0-2	2-2	2	1	2	2	6
Kylen Milton	Guard	31	1-7	0-2	4-4	7	1	2	0	6
Alden Applewhite	F	20	0-1	0-1	2-2	6	0	2	0	2
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin	F	8	0-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	0
Justin Morgan	Guard	2	0-3	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.0Possessions64.0

93.8Offensive Efficiency96.9

96.9Defensive Efficiency93.8

-3.1Net Efficiency3.1

47.1%Effective FG%35.5%

49.9%True Shooting %46.4%

20.3%Turnover Rate11.0%

32.7%Free Throw Rate45.5%

23.1%3-Point Rate41.8%

0.62Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Murray State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 64.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.