Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

40.7%Missouri State

59.3%Valparaiso

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADValparaiso -3.3

PROJECTED TOTAL147.0

MODEL MONEYLINEValparaiso -146

Valparaiso

18-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 72

Projected Total147.0

Projected ScoreValparaiso 75

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricValparaiso

51.1MMH Power Index49.9

110.5Offensive Efficiency106.6

108.4Defensive Efficiency105.8

2.1Net Efficiency0.8

0.5Strength of Schedule0.3

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

67.9Tempo67.5

51.8%Effective FG%48.7%

16.4%Turnover Rate15.6%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %32.4%

42.9%Free Throw Rate40.0%

1.4Average Margin0.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Missouri State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMissouri State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.1–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.5–106.6), net efficiency (2.1–0.8), strength of schedule (0.5–0.3).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.8–108.4), recent form (-0.1–-2.1), ball security (15.6–16.4).

Final

Missouri State

64—66

Valparaiso

Valparaiso by 2 • 63.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATValparaiso

25-61FG19-47

41.0%FG%40.0%

5-233PT4-19

22.0%3PT%21.0%

9-14FT24-31

64.0%FT%77.0%

44Rebounds26

15Offensive Rebounds3

12Assists8

11Turnovers5

3Steals3

3Blocks6

25Fouls16

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Vincent Brady II	G	36	6-14	1-5	4-5	6	3	0	0	17
Jalen Hampton	G	23	5-6	1-1	1-2	8	1	0	0	12
Michael Osei-Bonsu	F	21	5-10	0-0	2-5	9	4	0	1	12
Wesley Oba	Forward	25	4-5	0-0	0-0	6	2	1	1	8
Dez White	G	31	1-7	1-6	2-2	2	1	1	0	5
Logan Epes	G	19	2-6	1-4	0-0	2	1	1	0	5
Zaxton King	G	25	1-5	1-5	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Chase Martin	Guard	14	1-7	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Allen Udemadu	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
All Wright	G	34	6-15	3-6	9-10	4	1	1	0	24
Cooper Schwieger	F	37	5-9	0-2	6-9	7	1	0	5	16
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	G	37	5-9	0-2	6-7	3	3	2	0	16
Kaspar Sepp	F	29	2-5	1-2	1-3	5	2	0	0	6
Justus McNair	G	9	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	0	0	0	2
Tyler Schmidt	G	9	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	36	0-4	0-4	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Isaiah Shaw	G	6	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Devon Ellis	F	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.7Possessions63.7

100.5Offensive Efficiency103.6

103.6Defensive Efficiency100.5

-3.1Net Efficiency3.1

45.1%Effective FG%44.7%

47.3%True Shooting %53.5%

17.3%Turnover Rate7.8%

23.0%Free Throw Rate66.0%

37.7%3-Point Rate40.4%

1.09Assist / Turnover1.60

Game Summary

Valparaiso won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 63.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.