South Alabama

21-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

23.0%South Alabama

77.0%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.5

PROJECTED TOTAL154.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -335

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 73

Projected Total154.7

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Team Comparison

South AlabamaMetricArkansas State

51.4MMH Power Index57.7

110.3Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

6.4Net Efficiency7.8

-3.7Strength of Schedule-1.0

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

67.4Tempo73.3

53.2%Effective FG%52.7%

12.8%Turnover Rate19.4%

24.9%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

39.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

4.3Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), shooting efficiency (53.2–52.7), ball security (12.8–19.4).

Final

South Alabama

60—56

Arkansas State

South Alabama by 4 • 65.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

South AlabamaTEAM STATArkansas State

22-55FG20-55

40.0%FG%36.0%

5-153PT6-31

33.0%3PT%19.0%

11-22FT10-14

50.0%FT%71.0%

32Rebounds46

10Offensive Rebounds14

11Assists14

9Turnovers19

13Steals5

3Blocks8

14Fouls18

Player Box Score

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Barry Dunning Jr.	G	36	5-10	1-1	3-6	8	2	0	1	14
Judah Brown	Forward	28	3-6	1-2	3-3	4	0	1	0	10
Jayden Cooper	G	28	3-8	2-4	0-2	1	2	4	0	8
Myles Corey	G	20	2-8	0-1	4-5	4	4	2	0	8
Cantia Rahming	Forward	24	3-7	0-0	1-3	5	1	2	2	7
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	14	3-8	1-4	0-0	2	1	0	0	7
JJ Wheat	G	25	3-5	0-1	0-3	2	1	3	0	6
John Broom	G	16	0-2	0-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Dylan Fasoyiro	Guard	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Randy Brady	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joseph Pinion	G	36	6-16	5-15	0-0	1	1	0	1	17
Izaiyah Nelson	F	34	7-12	0-0	2-4	23	0	1	3	16
Kobe Julien	Forward	37	3-8	0-3	2-3	5	4	2	1	8
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	37	1-4	1-4	5-6	4	3	1	0	8
Taryn Todd	Guard	30	3-11	0-7	1-1	4	5	1	3	7
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	18	0-2	0-1	0-0	6	1	0	0	0
Rashaud Marshall	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Avery Felts	Guard	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.6Possessions65.6

91.5Offensive Efficiency85.4

85.4Defensive Efficiency91.5

6.1Net Efficiency-6.1

44.5%Effective FG%41.8%

45.8%True Shooting %45.4%

14.0%Turnover Rate28.5%

40.0%Free Throw Rate25.5%

27.3%3-Point Rate56.4%

1.22Assist / Turnover0.74

Game Summary

South Alabama won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 65.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.