NJIT

16-17

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

5.7%NJIT

94.3%UMBC

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUMBC -19.1

PROJECTED TOTAL139.0

MODEL MONEYLINEUMBC -1654

UMBC

24-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNJIT 60

Projected Total139.0

Projected ScoreUMBC 79

Team Comparison

NJITMetricUMBC

38.5MMH Power Index59.1

98.1Offensive Efficiency113.0

107.2Defensive Efficiency99.0

-9.1Net Efficiency14.0

-0.5Strength of Schedule-5.6

-5.8Last 10 Net Efficiency24.7

68.3Tempo65.5

47.0%Effective FG%54.3%

16.9%Turnover Rate14.3%

26.9%Offensive Rebound %25.2%

34.0%Free Throw Rate34.1%

-6.2Average Margin9.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UMBC HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY94.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUMBC holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.1–38.5), offensive efficiency (113.0–98.1), defensive efficiency (99.0–107.2), net efficiency (14.0–-9.1).

NJIT COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-0.5–-5.6), offensive rebounding (26.9–25.2).

Final

NJIT

91—95

UMBC

UMBC by 4 • 78.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NJITTEAM STATUMBC

33-64FG33-67

52.0%FG%49.0%

11-193PT15-32

58.0%3PT%47.0%

14-17FT14-18

82.0%FT%78.0%

38Rebounds31

7Offensive Rebounds5

10Assists14

14Turnovers8

1Steals8

3Blocks1

16Fouls14

Player Box Score

NJIT

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tariq Francis	G	34	10-21	4-7	3-3	7	6	1	0	27
Quentin Duncan	G	19	5-6	4-4	4-4	3	0	0	0	18
Tim Moore Jr.	F	36	4-7	1-2	7-9	8	0	0	1	16
Ari Fulton	G	36	5-9	0-1	0-1	4	0	0	1	10
Jordan Rogers	F	33	4-7	2-4	0-0	8	3	0	1	10
Sebastian Robinson	G	27	3-10	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	0	6
Malachi Arrington	C	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
John Kelly	F	4	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Triston Wennersten	Forward	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

UMBC

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Banks Jr.	G	38	11-20	9-15	4-4	3	2	2	1	35
Bryce Johnson	Guard	39	12-21	4-9	1-1	8	4	1	0	29
Marlon Short	Guard	40	6-10	1-1	6-8	3	5	2	0	19
Louie Jordan	F	26	2-7	1-4	2-2	8	0	1	0	7
Regimantas Ciunys	F	14	2-3	0-0	1-3	4	1	0	0	5
Devan Sapp	Guard	23	0-4	0-3	0-0	5	1	2	0	0
Ace Valentine	G	15	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Tim Eze	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

78.9Possessions78.9

115.3Offensive Efficiency120.4

120.4Defensive Efficiency115.3

-5.1Net Efficiency5.1

60.2%Effective FG%60.4%

63.1%True Shooting %62.9%

17.7%Turnover Rate10.2%

26.6%Free Throw Rate26.9%

29.7%3-Point Rate47.8%

0.71Assist / Turnover1.75

Game Summary

UMBC won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 78.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.