Wake Forest

18-17

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

31.3%Wake Forest

68.7%NC State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNC State -7.0

PROJECTED TOTAL161.5

MODEL MONEYLINENC State -219

NC State

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreWake Forest 77

Projected Total161.5

Projected ScoreNC State 84

Team Comparison

Wake ForestMetricNC State

57.6MMH Power Index60.1

112.4Offensive Efficiency118.4

109.7Defensive Efficiency108.6

2.7Net Efficiency9.8

7.2Strength of Schedule6.4

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.9

70.2Tempo70.2

52.8%Effective FG%55.1%

15.5%Turnover Rate13.1%

30.0%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

36.1%Free Throw Rate35.7%

1.9Average Margin6.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

NC State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY68.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNC State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (60.1–57.6), offensive efficiency (118.4–112.4), defensive efficiency (108.6–109.7), net efficiency (9.8–2.7).

Wake Forest COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.2–6.4), recent form (-0.1–-11.9), offensive rebounding (30.0–28.2).

Final

Wake Forest

73—85

NC State

NC State by 12 • 69.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Wake ForestTEAM STATNC State

22-53FG29-58

42.0%FG%50.0%

2-93PT13-32

22.0%3PT%41.0%

27-34FT14-17

79.0%FT%82.0%

29Rebounds36

10Offensive Rebounds11

13Assists23

11Turnovers13

4Steals3

—Blocks3

16Fouls24

Player Box Score

Wake Forest

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Cameron Hildreth	Guard	38	5-12	0-3	6-8	4	3	1	16
Tre'Von Spillers	F	37	3-9	1-2	8-8	3	1	1	15
Hunter Sallis	Guard	40	3-10	0-1	7-8	9	4	1	13
Efton Reid III	Forward	24	3-8	0-2	6-7	4	0	0	12
Juke Harris	G	23	4-6	1-1	0-3	3	1	0	9
Omaha Biliew	F	10	2-3	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	4
Ty-Laur Johnson	G	23	1-4	0-0	0-0	0	3	0	2
Parker Friedrichsen	G	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	2

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	28	8-13	4-7	4-4	4	3	1	0	24
Dontrez Styles	Guard	34	9-17	4-11	0-0	10	1	0	1	22
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	27	2-3	0-0	6-7	7	2	0	2	10
Michael O'Connell	Guard	36	3-7	2-5	1-2	4	13	0	0	9
Marcus Hill	G	22	3-6	1-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	9
Jayden Taylor	Guard	24	2-5	1-3	0-0	1	2	0	0	5
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	5	1-4	1-3	1-2	1	0	1	0	4
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield	Forward	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	4	1	1	0	2
Breon Pass	Guard	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Trey Parker	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Ismael Diouf	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.2Possessions69.2

105.5Offensive Efficiency122.8

122.8Defensive Efficiency105.5

-17.3Net Efficiency17.3

43.4%Effective FG%61.2%

52.8%True Shooting %64.3%

15.7%Turnover Rate19.1%

64.2%Free Throw Rate29.3%

17.0%3-Point Rate55.2%

1.18Assist / Turnover1.77

Game Summary

NC State won by 12 points. The game played at approximately 69.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.