Buffalo

17-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

60.5%Buffalo

39.5%Ball State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBuffalo -1.4

PROJECTED TOTAL146.5

MODEL MONEYLINEBuffalo -153

Ball State

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBuffalo 74

Projected Total146.5

Projected ScoreBall State 73

Team Comparison

BuffaloMetricBall State

49.7MMH Power Index41.3

114.9Offensive Efficiency101.7

112.2Defensive Efficiency104.7

2.7Net Efficiency-3.0

0.0Strength of Schedule-3.9

-5.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.9

67.9Tempo66.4

56.1%Effective FG%48.3%

16.1%Turnover Rate16.0%

27.6%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

40.4%Free Throw Rate33.0%

1.8Average Margin-2.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Buffalo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBuffalo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.7–41.3), offensive efficiency (114.9–101.7), net efficiency (2.7–-3.0), strength of schedule (0.0–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–112.2), recent form (-0.9–-5.9), ball security (16.0–16.1).

Final

Buffalo

66—80

Ball State

Ball State by 14 • 72.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

BuffaloTEAM STATBall State

22-55FG24-55

40.0%FG%44.0%

4-233PT6-13

17.0%3PT%46.0%

18-26FT26-36

69.0%FT%72.0%

32Rebounds41

8Offensive Rebounds13

9Assists10

14Turnovers12

4Steals5

3Blocks—

29Fouls19

Player Box Score

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kavon Bradford	G	22	6-11	1-2	5-8	4	0	1	0	18
Ryan Sabol	G	38	4-10	0-4	6-7	4	1	0	0	14
Tyson Dunn	G	35	4-12	0-4	2-4	1	7	2	0	10
Anquan Boldin Jr	G	22	2-3	1-2	3-5	4	0	1	0	8
Tim Oboh	C	17	2-6	0-2	2-2	4	0	0	1	6
Frederiks Meinarts	Center	17	2-3	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	1	5
Ben Michaels	F	10	1-4	1-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Noah Batchelor	G	31	1-5	0-2	0-0	10	1	0	1	2
Brayden Jackson	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Bryson Wilson	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Payton Sparks	Center	23	6-10	0-0	6-8	8	1	0	18
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	31	3-5	2-2	6-9	7	0	0	14
Ben Hendriks	Center	11	6-8	0-0	2-2	2	0	1	14
Fatt Hill	G	29	3-12	1-3	3-4	11	4	0	10
Juanse Gorosito	G	34	3-8	2-4	0-0	1	1	2	8
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	14	3-5	1-1	1-3	2	3	0	8
Mason Jones	F	14	0-1	0-0	4-6	3	0	0	4
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	31	0-4	0-2	2-2	2	1	1	2
Joey Hart	G	11	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	0	1	2
Zane Doughty	C	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0
TJ Burch	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.3Possessions72.3

91.3Offensive Efficiency110.7

110.7Defensive Efficiency91.3

-19.4Net Efficiency19.4

43.6%Effective FG%49.1%

49.0%True Shooting %55.5%

19.1%Turnover Rate16.9%

47.3%Free Throw Rate65.5%

41.8%3-Point Rate23.6%

0.64Assist / Turnover0.83

Game Summary

Ball State won by 14 points. The game played at approximately 72.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.