Fresno State

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

89.8%Fresno State

10.2%Air Force

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADFresno State -14.4

PROJECTED TOTAL143.9

MODEL MONEYLINEFresno State -880

Air Force

3-29

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFresno State 79

Projected Total143.9

Projected ScoreAir Force 65

Team Comparison

Fresno StateMetricAir Force

47.1MMH Power Index23

104.9Offensive Efficiency91.3

104.9Defensive Efficiency118.5

0.0Net Efficiency-27.2

1.5Strength of Schedule6.2

-6.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-33.5

69.4Tempo67.4

51.3%Effective FG%49.0%

18.2%Turnover Rate21.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %21.4%

35.5%Free Throw Rate35.9%

0.0Average Margin-18.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Fresno State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY89.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMFresno State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (47.1–23.0), offensive efficiency (104.9–91.3), defensive efficiency (104.9–118.5), net efficiency (0.0–-27.2).

Air Force COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.2–1.5), free throw rate (35.9–35.5).

Final

Fresno State

69—72

Air Force

Air Force by 3 • 69.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Fresno StateTEAM STATAir Force

27-56FG25-63

48.0%FG%40.0%

4-143PT15-40

29.0%3PT%38.0%

11-16FT7-11

69.0%FT%64.0%

38Rebounds30

7Offensive Rebounds7

9Assists20

12Turnovers10

5Steals9

5Blocks3

11Fouls17

Player Box Score

Fresno State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brian Amuneke	G	38	6-11	3-7	3-4	6	0	1	1	18
Jasir Tremble	Guard	44	6-18	1-6	2-2	2	2	4	1	15
Elijah Price	F	42	5-10	0-0	4-6	11	4	0	0	14
Alex Crawford	F	42	6-11	0-1	2-2	11	2	0	1	14
Mor Seck	C	28	4-4	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	2	8
Joshua Bonga	Guard	16	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Pierre Geneste Jr.	C	15	0-1	0-0	0-2	1	0	0	0	0

Air Force

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Will Cooper	F	31	6-12	6-12	3-3	1	1	0	1	21
Luke Kearney	F	39	7-17	3-11	2-3	4	3	2	0	19
Jeffrey Mills	Guard	44	5-11	3-6	0-0	4	1	0	0	13
Ethan Taylor	Guard	41	3-12	1-6	0-0	8	8	3	0	7
Beau Becker	Forward	9	1-4	1-2	2-3	1	1	1	0	5
Wesley Celichowski	C	30	2-5	0-1	0-2	3	2	0	2	4
Chase Beasley	Guard	22	1-2	1-2	0-0	4	4	3	0	3
Caleb Walker	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Byron Brown	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.9Possessions69.9

98.7Offensive Efficiency103.0

103.0Defensive Efficiency98.7

-4.3Net Efficiency4.3

51.8%Effective FG%51.6%

54.2%True Shooting %52.8%

17.5%Turnover Rate14.0%

28.6%Free Throw Rate17.5%

25.0%3-Point Rate63.5%

0.75Assist / Turnover2.00

Game Summary

Air Force won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 69.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.